"Luck" Statistic

[jeff93]

Does anyone remember the "Luck" statistic that used to be talked about?

I remember out of about 330 D1 basketball teams, the Stallings teams were always ranked in the 300s in terms of "luck", consistently. Meaning they would lose on last second shots and there were some other variables.

I often thought those great teams from 2006-2015 would have been REALLy good with a little luck.

This team seems to be the opposite - they don't have the talent of the foster/byers years and Taylor/Ezeli/Jenkins years, but the ball bounces in their favor more often it seems.

In any event, super fun watching this team in the last month or so.

[cjdore]

Sure was fun watching QMB's 3 swish thru the nets as first half ends and then Lawrence's prayer was answered as the ball hit back of rim and calmly dropped thru the nets. And who could forget Wright's fall away 2 pointer with 2 secs to play. Luck was with us last night!

[mathguy]

I cold be wrong, but I think a lot of the luck statistic is related to performance in close games. In theory, very close games should even out over time. The Byars/Foster bunch EXCELLED at close games. The Taylor/Ezeli teams really didn't. This year, despite the Missouri loss, we have won more than our fair share of last possession games.

I don't know what else might factor into the luck statistic. Opponent FT% compared to avg maybe? It's tough to use opponent FG% and claim that its luck and not your defense.

[katmai]

I cold be wrong, but I think a lot of the luck statistic is related to performance in close games. In theory, very close games should even out over time. The Byars/Foster bunch EXCELLED at close games. The Taylor/Ezeli teams really didn't. This year, despite the Missouri loss, we have won more than our fair share of last possession games.

I don't know what else might factor into the luck statistic. Opponent FT% compared to avg maybe? It's tough to use opponent FG% and claim that its luck and not your defense.

Vanderbilt is 6-1 in Conference games decided by 5 points or less. I hope those close games don't start evening out over the rest of the season.

[alathIN]

My thought on this has always been if you let the game to whether one shot goes in or doesn't go in, you're putting your fate in the hands of luck.

This particularly applies when the supposedly better team (or fans of that team) deride their opponent's win because it was 'just luck.'
Yeah, well if you're a final four team and we're a doormat, you should have controlled the game to where one lucky shot doesn't decide it.

Also brings to mind the term "clutch."
On the teams with Booker and Goheen, they were both very good 3pt shooters and as I remember it, Booker usually had the higher %. But there was something about Goheen in clutch situations. If it was a last second shot, you might have wanted Goheen taking it despite his slightly lower shooting %.
It does seem like some players thrive in those situations. It would be interesting to see if the stats support that idea.

[Jason94]

Does anyone remember the "Luck" statistic that used to be talked about?

I remember out of about 330 D1 basketball teams, the Stallings teams were always ranked in the 300s in terms of "luck", consistently. Meaning they would lose on last second shots and there were some other variables.

I often thought those great teams from 2006-2015 would have been REALLy good with a little luck.

This team seems to be the opposite - they don't have the talent of the foster/byers years and Taylor/Ezeli/Jenkins years, but the ball bounces in their favor more often it seems.

In any event, super fun watching this team in the last month or so.

https://14powers.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=23584

I posted this two weeks ago.

[MrMemorial]

I cold be wrong, but I think a lot of the luck statistic is related to performance in close games. In theory, very close games should even out over time. The Byars/Foster bunch EXCELLED at close games. The Taylor/Ezeli teams really didn't. This year, despite the Missouri loss, we have won more than our fair share of last possession games.

I don't know what else might factor into the luck statistic. Opponent FT% compared to avg maybe? It's tough to use opponent FG% and claim that its luck and not your defense.

Rule of thumb: in a close NCAA regional game vs Murray State, don't put in a 37% FT shooter near the end and bench your 73% guy. The results are predictable. (He missed both FT's)

[AuricGoldfinger]

I've been tracking Vanderbilt's performance in close games (5 points or less, or decided in OT) since Kevin Stallings' first season.

From 1999-00 through the 2009-10 season (which ended with that loss to Murray State), Vandy's winning percentage in close games was a very good .643. The only season under .500 during that stretch was the woeful 2002-03 season.

After that 2010 season, CKS' luck changed and VU's winning percentage in close games during the remainder of his tenure fell off a cliff and was a woeful .304.

Bryce Drew wasn't very good in close games overall (.423)--but of course, most of the games in his last season on West End weren't close.

And CJS hadn't been very good in close games...until this year, with Vanderbilt currently 9-4 (.692) in games decided by 5 points or less or in OT. As a result he's now almost break-even in close games for his tenure at VU (.459).

[VUaskew]

Jeff Green traveled. It was his luck it didn't get called.

[VU1970]

Jeff Green traveled. It was his luck it didn't get called.

No. It was villainy plain and simple.

[nyyankeeDore]

Jeff Green traveled. It was his luck it didn't get called.

The Kentucky player who threw the air ball at the buzzer last night also traveled. It is good that it was an air ball, because if it had gone in the traveling would have been ignored, and the shot would have counted.

[Jason94]

Jeff Green traveled. It was his luck it didn't get called.

Stacy Poole also traveled. Lots of bad luck to go around.

[mtnvandy]

What was the finsl tally on Goheen’s career game winning/ tyimg shots?
Pitt
Louiville
UGa
Am I forgetting any?

And he NEVER missed an end of game shot, correct?


MtnVandy

#BeatMSU

[MrMemorial]

What was the finsl tally on Goheen’s career game winning/ tyimg shots?
Pitt
Louiville
UGa
Am I forgetting any?

And he NEVER missed an end of game shot, correct?


MtnVandy

#BeatMSU

He missed one at Bama

[alathIN]

What was the finsl tally on Goheen’s career game winning/ tyimg shots?
Pitt
Louiville
UGa
Am I forgetting any?

And he NEVER missed an end of game shot, correct?


MtnVandy

#BeatMSU

He had a last second shot to beat UT in Memorial one year.

[AuricGoldfinger]

I believe Goheen also made one at Princeton, too, but missed one at Florida in 1989 in a game that went to OT.

[skinnerfan]

I believe Goheen hit game winner against Penn.

[AuricGoldfinger]

I believe Goheen hit game winner against Penn.

That's right--I knew it was an Ivy League opponent that started with P.