Some thoughts, predictions about the season ahead
Posted: Mon Aug 21, 2023 1:42 pm
Founder's Walk was last weekend. Classes start tomorrow. The heat is still here; it should be close to 90 when Vandy kicks off on Saturday night. Time for some wild predictions about the season...
1. I am unusually bullish on this year's Commodores and think folks are underestimating them; I'm boldly predicting SEVEN wins and a minor bowl appearance for this year's team. The key games this season are Wake Forest, Kentucky, and Missouri; I see Vandy coming out of that trifecta 2-1 (with UK the most probable loss), meaning they should start 5-1. Squeezing two wins out of the rest of the schedule will be a tall order, but I think they do it. Why? Because the level of Vanderbilt's play is about to rise.
2. I think you are going to see Vanderbilt go to a much more pass-oriented offense this season, totally different from what we've seen from Clark Lea teams. Why? Because that's where the talent is. Suddenly, Vandy is flush with talented, fast receivers, and has a QB who can get it to them (and can scramble a bit himself if need be). The offensive line is sizable, deep, and experienced (when could we say that?) and should be able to pass protect. The running game should be a work in progress; the two big tight ends Lea used last year in short-yardage situations are gone, as is the big bruiser Ray Davis. I see Vandy relying on its passing game until its running game comes along, instead of vice versa; hopefully one from that roomful of RBs emerges as a reliable third-down back, and another emerges as a lightning-in-a-bottle game-breaker. For me, the biggest question mark is A.J. Swann's durability; no one knows yet what he's capable of if he can stay upright for a whole season.
On defense, I've watched with glee as Vandy has improved its depth, length, and speed in its front seven. The defense has a lot to prove after last season, but it should be much better at stopping the run. You know that good things are going to come from C.J. Taylor, Jaylen Mahoney, and De'Rickey Wright in the backfield. The only concern is at the two corners, where Lea still hasn't quite surfaced the players to match up with receivers like Tennessee's and Georgia's; and that is admittedly a crucial weakness. But the pass rush should be vastly improved, and you can expect a lot of cagey blitz packages from Nick Howell.
Likewise, this should be the best kicking game we've seen yet for a Lea team. Hayball is a tremendous punter, and I keep hearing good things about the two guys battling for Joe Bulovas' placekicking spot. We should be all right there. Hoping for an improvement in punt coverage, a problem spot last season.
With Vandy's talent level up, I think there will be several games that go down to the last possession; and we should get a much clearer read on what kind of a game-day coach Clark Lea is. Last year Vandy went 2-1 in games decided by 7 points or less.
Bottom line, I like everything I see from this coaching staff (with the possible exception of how the offensive talent was utilized last season). I think this is the season we start to see Clark Lea's investment in "culture" begin to pay some dividends. Mark my words: Vanderbilt is CLOSING THE GAP. If you're a season ticket holder, watch out! Those last two home games were going to sell out anyway, and if Vandy starts out 5-1, there could be a HEAVY demand for those tickets, with the stadium at a reduced capacity.
Where would a 7-5 Vanderbilt team wind up in the postseason? Probably either the Gasparilla Bowl in Tampa (I'm there!), or the TicketSmarter Birmingham Bowl (ugh).
3. Georgia will win the SEC (beating West champion LSU in the SECCG), but its luck will run out in the playoffs. My four playoff teams are: Georgia, Michigan, Penn State, and... Texas (probably going to be kicking myself for that prediction).
I hate this prediction, but: Joe Milton is going to have a great season and probably be in Heisman consideration. (Maybe saying this will jinx him.) But the Heisman is ultimately going to go to...
4. Quinn Ewers of Texas.
1. I am unusually bullish on this year's Commodores and think folks are underestimating them; I'm boldly predicting SEVEN wins and a minor bowl appearance for this year's team. The key games this season are Wake Forest, Kentucky, and Missouri; I see Vandy coming out of that trifecta 2-1 (with UK the most probable loss), meaning they should start 5-1. Squeezing two wins out of the rest of the schedule will be a tall order, but I think they do it. Why? Because the level of Vanderbilt's play is about to rise.
2. I think you are going to see Vanderbilt go to a much more pass-oriented offense this season, totally different from what we've seen from Clark Lea teams. Why? Because that's where the talent is. Suddenly, Vandy is flush with talented, fast receivers, and has a QB who can get it to them (and can scramble a bit himself if need be). The offensive line is sizable, deep, and experienced (when could we say that?) and should be able to pass protect. The running game should be a work in progress; the two big tight ends Lea used last year in short-yardage situations are gone, as is the big bruiser Ray Davis. I see Vandy relying on its passing game until its running game comes along, instead of vice versa; hopefully one from that roomful of RBs emerges as a reliable third-down back, and another emerges as a lightning-in-a-bottle game-breaker. For me, the biggest question mark is A.J. Swann's durability; no one knows yet what he's capable of if he can stay upright for a whole season.
On defense, I've watched with glee as Vandy has improved its depth, length, and speed in its front seven. The defense has a lot to prove after last season, but it should be much better at stopping the run. You know that good things are going to come from C.J. Taylor, Jaylen Mahoney, and De'Rickey Wright in the backfield. The only concern is at the two corners, where Lea still hasn't quite surfaced the players to match up with receivers like Tennessee's and Georgia's; and that is admittedly a crucial weakness. But the pass rush should be vastly improved, and you can expect a lot of cagey blitz packages from Nick Howell.
Likewise, this should be the best kicking game we've seen yet for a Lea team. Hayball is a tremendous punter, and I keep hearing good things about the two guys battling for Joe Bulovas' placekicking spot. We should be all right there. Hoping for an improvement in punt coverage, a problem spot last season.
With Vandy's talent level up, I think there will be several games that go down to the last possession; and we should get a much clearer read on what kind of a game-day coach Clark Lea is. Last year Vandy went 2-1 in games decided by 7 points or less.
Bottom line, I like everything I see from this coaching staff (with the possible exception of how the offensive talent was utilized last season). I think this is the season we start to see Clark Lea's investment in "culture" begin to pay some dividends. Mark my words: Vanderbilt is CLOSING THE GAP. If you're a season ticket holder, watch out! Those last two home games were going to sell out anyway, and if Vandy starts out 5-1, there could be a HEAVY demand for those tickets, with the stadium at a reduced capacity.
Where would a 7-5 Vanderbilt team wind up in the postseason? Probably either the Gasparilla Bowl in Tampa (I'm there!), or the TicketSmarter Birmingham Bowl (ugh).
3. Georgia will win the SEC (beating West champion LSU in the SECCG), but its luck will run out in the playoffs. My four playoff teams are: Georgia, Michigan, Penn State, and... Texas (probably going to be kicking myself for that prediction).
I hate this prediction, but: Joe Milton is going to have a great season and probably be in Heisman consideration. (Maybe saying this will jinx him.) But the Heisman is ultimately going to go to...
4. Quinn Ewers of Texas.