How Vandy Finishes 10th

[MikeADore]

Right now, three teams are battling for the number-10 spot in the standings that would give them a first-round bye in the SEC tourney. As I said in a recent post, it’s not the bye that interests me. It’s taking a team that had near unprecedented attrition in pre-season practice (three starters lost in a three-week period), and finding a way to make gains in the league.

Auburn has the upper hand, one game up on Vandy and Florida with two games to go. Florida actually has the head-to-head tie breaker over Vandy, but I’m predicting the Gators lose their final two games. All three teams figure to take it on the chin Thursday night with Auburn traveling to Georgia, Vandy at home against LSU and Florida at home against Alabama.

If that holds true, it could come down to Vandy’s game at Auburn to wrap up the regular season Sunday. Do I expect us to go to Auburn and win a game when both teams have something on the line? That’s not a limb I want to walk out on, but the very fact that we could be in position to play for a tournament bye is worth noting.

If Florida monkeys everything up by winning one of its final two games, that brings tie-breaking scenarios into play. If that happens and Vandy wins at Auburn, the three teams in the tie would be 1-1 against each other, so you go to the top of the standings and start working your way down until you find a team that could break the tie. Best I can tell, Auburn would win in that scenario with a 1-1 record vs. Ole Miss. That could change, too, as the teams at or near the top could also change positions over the final two games.

Let’s just keep it simple. Florida loses its final two, Vandy beats Auburn, and, with identical conference records, wins the tiebreaker over Auburn with the head-to-head advantage. Vandy finishes 10th.

Standings and schedule with two games remaining

10. Auburn (4-10)
@ Georgia (8-6)
vs. Vanderbilt (3-11)

11. Florida (3-11)
vs. Alabama (9-5)
@ Missouri (6-8)

12. Vanderbilt (3-11)
vs. LSU (13-1)
@Auburn (4-10)

13. Kentucky (2-12)
@ Texas A&M (1-13)
vs. Tennessee (12-2)

14. Texas A&M (1-13)
vs. Kentucky (2-12)
@ Arkansas (6-8)

[charlestonalum]

Thanks