The real issue is ... ineffective recruiting

[HopsLikeHolwerda]

Nobody really wants to hear it given the level of talent we've had over the last two decades, but Corbs and company have fallen victim to bad recruiting practices. Offering Freshmen pitchers in high school is not so bad because if they can throw hard at 14 years old, they'll be throwing hard at 18 years old. Projecting elite pitchers is not hard. The problem is we've done that with hitters, too. And as someone who has played in college and coached elite-level baseball, that just doesn't work. The kid who is 6'2 as a freshman in high school and is mashing HRs, is usually 6'2 four years later and not developed. We are offering those kids and filling up our classes 3-4 years in the future and completely missing out on late-developing or slightly-known prospects in our own back yard. Two of Tennessee's weekend starters were freshman from within 25 miles of campus. As they blossomed in high school, our recruiting classes were full.

Bottom line, it's fine to have a few future commits for down the road, especially elite arms. We already have 18 Jr commits...2 from in state. We have 10 commits currently in their Sophomore year of high school. Again, 2 are in-state prospects. We have 8 commits that are currently in the middle of their Freshmen year in high school. None from in-state. That is crazy! Terrible practice with lack of foresight.

We have commitments from 18 kids (Soph/Fresh in HS) who have barely played any high school baseball. And while I'm sure they paid their money to attend the big prospect tournaments and pump their ratings, we will have no space for the "Bryan Reynolds" who develops late and plays 10 miles from campus.

The problem is that UT has a team full of kids who are almost all from within 3 hours of drive time from our campus, and we never paid attention to them because our classes were full 2 years prior. They want to show us up for ignoring them, and they're right to do so. The rivalry means something to them. It means nothing to our kids from Washington, Massachusetts, Florida, Texas. To them, UT is just another team on the schedule. Hopefully that has changed now.

I don't say this often, but Corbin messed up. He profiled the wrong hitters years ago, and this group simply hasn't developed. If Dom Keegan is a 1B, he's pretty good. Bradfield, Jones and Diaz are pretty solid. The rest of the hitters in our lineup are subpar and not getting better. And frankly, they're not getting coached well. Taking pitches for the sole purpose of running up pitch counts is a terrible strategy for starters with more than 3 effective pitches. It works in midweek games and weak SEC opponents. But against the cream of the league, it's a horrible strategy. How many runs have we scored in the first 3 innings of games this year? Not many. We are just hoping to get to a pitcher the second time through the lineup and simply staring at hittable pitch after pitch. That's a pathetic approach, and it's maddening.

This team hasn't come close to its peak, but I'm beginning to wonder even how high that peak is. For this crew, it's not very high, in my estimation: a regional team, with an outside shot at a Super if the matchups are favorable. We lack grit. We lack leadership. And if we're really being honest, we lack talent compared to the elite teams this year. Starts with bad evaluations and bad recruiting practices.

[VUaskew]

yeah, I guess it didn't work when we were going to the CWS 4 of the last 7 years...

[HopsLikeHolwerda]

yeah, I guess it didn't work when we were going to the CWS 4 of the last 7 years...

Last year's lineup was bad. Having the two best SPs in college baseball along with a top closer covers a lot of deficiencies.

And those first two trips were before the current practices began. Today, we wouldn't get Swanson, Reynolds, or Wiel. Our classes would have been full.

[charlestonalum]

First, I really appreciate the premise of OP, but if the early signing is the problem, why are pitchers exempt from this hypothesis? I would think that player development would be as much a problem for all skills, not just hitting. As for the comment that early signing has served us well in the past (which it obviously has) - nothing stays the same. What works yesterday may not work today or tomorrow. Great coaches adjust. Corbin is a great coach and he will adjust, I am confident of that.
Talent (recruiting) is just one element, also is coaching
(development), strategy, injury/illness, and luck - bad luck in last 2 series with wind at SC and lights at home.
This is a good discussion. Clearly things have not gone perfectly since the first game in CWS last year and Corbin has to figure out why

[baseball1234]

We are in a funk, UT is good and the sky is falling. The only reason UT got guys late is because they could not get a 10th grader to commit. It was an unsuccessful program and there was no allure for a highly recruited kid to go there. Now they have arrived because the "leftovers" can play. They will pull in younger commits because they can. No way Vitello sits back and says "I'll pass on him, it's too early."

I agree that it's a crap shoot when evaluating upside on a young kid, but there is no way that you can wait and then hope you get the late bloomers.

[PinkFloyd]

I have been saying this for 2 years... also... Corbin's methods he learned 30 years ago from Jack Leggett at Clemson are seriously out of date. The NIL, the way players think today is not conducive to the Corbin way. Promoting the brand VandyBoys .......while improving the brand , the product has suffered. The fact is UT has better pitching and better hitting , Frank Anderson is not given enough Credit, Brownie is a rookie compared to Frank. UT pitchers are loose, VU pitchers are tight

[PinkFloyd]

Honestly, Vanderbilt should be in the ACC. The athletic department as a whole is not a SEC program. With the addition of Texas and Ok , if I was the SEC I would question how Vandy remotely adds value , Baseball is non revenue generating.

[KudzuLeague]

UT has a good baseball team now. That is annoying, I agree. The rest of this thread is perfectly idiotic.

[HopsLikeHolwerda]

First, I really appreciate the premise of OP, but if the early signing is the problem, why are pitchers exempt from this hypothesis? I would think that player development would be as much a problem for all skills, not just hitting. As for the comment that early signing has served us well in the past (which it obviously has) - nothing stays the same. What works yesterday may not work today or tomorrow. Great coaches adjust. Corbin is a great coach and he will adjust, I am confident of that.
Talent (recruiting) is just one element, also is coaching
(development), strategy, injury/illness, and luck - bad luck in last 2 series with wind at SC and lights at home.
This is a good discussion. Clearly things have not gone perfectly since the first game in CWS last year and Corbin has to figure out why

It's a good question. My answer is this: Pitching evaluation is 100% about velocity. College coaches love to say, "he mixes three pitches" when they get a recruit, but they don't really care. They only care about velocity. That's why kids pay thousands of dollars each summer to go to the pitching institutes...more velocity. And you don't lose velocity over time at this age (maybe in your late 30s) unless you tear your UCL. Thus, a pitcher that throws 90 at 14 years old, will throw at least 90 at 18 years old. So, it's pretty easy.

For hitters, I'll put it this way. We had a kid come to our travel program when he was 13 years old. He was 6'1 180 pounds. He was the only kid we had who could hit HRs as a 13u (first year on a full size field). He played 1B and solely focused on hitting HRs, no matter what we told him. We had multiple college scouts asking about him that season. by 16u, the calls had stopped and he was moved off of the Platinum team to one of our lower teams...and hitting 8th. Because he was still 6'1, 180 pounds. I say this as someone who works with them every day. If you offer a 14u or 15u hitter a scholarship, you better be SURE they haven't stopped growing. Lastly, they play against their age in the summers when college coaches watch them. A 14u throwing 85+...you offer that kid, it's rare. A Senior throwing 90+ is common now. When you offer those young hitters, you've only seen them hit average pitching for the most part. They don't see velocity like they will in college until their last two seasons of select ball. Some simply can't handle it.

All that to say, for hitters, it's very tough to know what that hitter will look like in 3 years. Pitchers, not so much.

[HopsLikeHolwerda]

UT has a good baseball team now. That is annoying, I agree. The rest of this thread is perfectly idiotic.

I know the regional select baseball landscape like the back of my hand. Our organization has coached 7 kids that play/have played at Vandy. One is currently on the team. 6 pitchers and 1 hitter. I'm coaching a current commit as well. And I'm a Vandy fan. But I'm tired of sending hitters to Louisville, Georgia Tech, Ole Miss because Vandy is full. Last year we had two kids sent to D1 schools out-of-state, and both are better hitters than anyone in our lineup not named Bradfield, Diaz or Jones. But the Vandy answer was simple, "we are full".

If you don't like the perspective and the conversation, so be it. It's not "idiotic", and coaches in the mid-state (High School and Select) talk about Vandy's recruiting preferences regularly. Disagree if you like, but the topic is worthy of discussion. I love Corbs, but he's not all-knowing. He's made recruiting mistakes. That doesn't make him a bad coach.

[charlestonalum]

Holwerada, this is a good discussion, thanks.
Since you are in a good position to know: when a player is approached by VU or UT - does it ever enter the mind that the two are very different Universities - or is it just about the coach and the program? Do they understand there are very real educational differences?

[FayetteDore]

Holwerada, this is a good discussion, thanks.
Since you are in a good position to know: when a player is approached by VU or UT - does it ever enter the mind that the two are very different Universities - or is it just about the coach and the program? Do they understand there are very real educational differences?

Probably not.

But at age 16, 17 or 18 - or 14 if commitments are occurring as early as this thread indicates - they probably don't have what seems to be your pathological hatred of the other university either.

[PinkFloyd]

I have known at least 50-60 players in this area that played, are playing of committed to D1 programs. TO answer your question the players do not care about the school. Vandy likes to use that as a selling tactic and rightfully so, but the player is looking for a place he can get field time, can they help him with his pro dreams, and how much is it going to cost the family. Most are not going to Vandy to become doctors or lawyers so the degree be it from UT or Vandy is likely the easiest major they can get. This is not always due to not wanting to earn a marketable degree but rather there is not enough time to do both.

[PinkFloyd]

I personally know the following players.
Kyle Wright .Vandy guy. fighting for a rotation spot high first round
Ethan Roberts Tennessee Tech forth rounder likely playing in majors this year.
Robbie Ray Brentwood High, 12 round CY young winner.....

My point is all were recruited differently and chose different paths... all made it, none are worried about their college degree.

Most of the time fans are only seeing the game from one perspective... and most of the time cannot take criticism. These teams go in cycles, no one stays on top

[baseball1234]

So what is the solution? We have to over-recruit because we lose guys to the draft. Impossible to leave a slot open because we have no idea how many recruits are actually enrolling.

For someone to suggest that the game has changed and Corbs might have been left behind is ludicrous. He has gone from small ball to HR ball, brought in a pitching lab, wireless device to catcher for pitch calling and then supplanted that with the electronic signal stuff. We were shifting before it was totally accepted. He DH'd a pitcher (which then became illegal) He is always on the cutting edge. We certainly don't have murderer's row this year but if anyone thinks that Corbs is going to sit back and let the game pass him by they have not been watching the last 20 years.

[docdore]

Holwerada, this is a good discussion, thanks.
Since you are in a good position to know: when a player is approached by VU or UT - does it ever enter the mind that the two are very different Universities - or is it just about the coach and the program? Do they understand there are very real educational differences?

Probably not.

But at age 16, 17 or 18 - or 14 if commitments are occurring as early as this thread indicates - they probably don't have what seems to be your pathological hatred of the other university either.

there's nothing pathologic about charleston's ut perspective/"hatred" (as you say). go2Lut!

[DS2001]

Holwerda, great post and follow up discussion. These past two weekends have opened people's eyes about a lot of things bubbling underneath the VU baseball program. I can't disagree too much about your reasoning behind the lack of hitting success. If you look strictly at the pitching against TN, it wasn't a "sky is falling" weekend. But the hitting and defense is what stunned me..in a bad way. BTW, Jason Holwerda's dunk against LSU is still the all time, most iconic dunk, in VU Basketball history!!

[VUaskew]

we've been top dog for so long, it seems unfathomable that we could have an occasional down year. such are our expectations these days - we've been spoiled.

As far as pathological hatred for UT, mine is reserved for their moronic fan base who, given all their shortcomings in football (see losing to Alabama, Florida, Georgia, and now Ole Miss year in and out), and basketball (nice deep NCAA run there), have suddenly discovered they play baseball.

There was this one a-hole in the outfield bleachers yesterday who did his damnedest to get on everyone's nerves. Nice to know our baseball success has gotten under his skin.

Fayette Dore = Vol Fan in disguise? There are UT boards out there for you to follow...

[FayetteDore]

we've been top dog for so long, it seems unfathomable that we could have an occasional down year. such are our expectations these days - we've been spoiled.

As far as pathological hatred for UT, mine is reserved for their moronic fan base who, given all their shortcomings in football (see losing to Alabama, Florida, Georgia, and now Ole Miss year in and out), and basketball (nice deep NCAA run there), have suddenly discovered they play baseball.

There was this one a-hole in the outfield bleachers yesterday who did his damnedest to get on everyone's nerves. Nice to know our baseball success has gotten under his skin. As opposed to the whistlers, who were loud and clear on the TV broadcast, yet again.

Fayette Dore = Vol Fan in disguise? There are UT boards out there for you to follow... Not interested in UT boards; their boards are mostly moronic.

[HopsLikeHolwerda]

Thanks DS2001. "JWerd" is one of my favorite Vandy athletes of all time. Jeff Taylor is the only one I can think of with his level of sheer athleticism.

As for the other question, the reputation of the school depends on the kid. Most Vanderbilt recruits do not really care. They see the Vandyboys as a path to the draft, and they're not wrong. They may come to love the school during their tenure, but their allegiance is typically to Corbs. That being said, most of the kids we coach won't have those high options, so we start by identifying what they'd like to study. We find schools that offer that particular program, and we start hammering coaches with videos. We use our network to get them placed. So it usually depends on the top-end talent of the kid. If they're a legit MLB prospect, the school does not matter. For most, we work to get them into the right situation for their future, even if that is Central Connecticut State.

Vitello is simply striking while the iron is hot. Middle Tennessee is producing major talent. It's not like the days of Price/Gray/Minor/T Hill/Cothams when those guys where so dominant because nobody else in the area was as talented. There's players all over this area with major D1 talent. Tennessee is seen as the "fun team" for most recruits these days, even though purists like myself, hate their antics. I'm hearing some rather interesting rumors about the confiscated bat this weekend. If true, some of the luster will come off that program.

I can honestly say that 5 years ago, every kid that came through our organization would have cut off a pinky to play for Vanderbilt. Now, they'd love to have the option, but Vandy is just another school. For most, there are dozens of D1 teams that will take them. They can get to the draft by going somewhere where they can play immediately. Currently have a former player chasing the HR record at Southern Illinois. Small school, but he's had a heck of a career, and will likely get drafted. That's more normal now. A few years back we had a crafty pitcher; exceptionally smart. Not really a late bloomer, but added velocity late in his high school career. Vandy talked to him once. Never followed up. He went to Duke, pitched pretty well against us a few times, and got drafted high. Other kids see that.

I know some may think I'm just dogging on the current staff. I'm not. They're all exceptional coaches and Corbin is someone our organization tries to emulate. I'm just sad to see the mid-state talent be pushed elsewhere. When I looked in our dugout this weekend, there was shock on our kid's faces, but no fire or anger. Kids from this area have that fire. They understand the SEC rivalries. It's an intangible that I think Corbs is missing out on. And for the record, I know why he recruits the north (especially the northeast) so heavily. In his estimation, those kids have played less baseball (seasonal up there) than kids in this region. Thus, if they are close from a talent perspective, maybe those northern kids have a higher ceiling. I completely understand the ideology. But they don't know what the Vandy/UT rivalry means to fans. And frankly, it's just another game to them.