Loss was about as expected

[Jason94]

The prediction was a 6 point loss and we lost by 5 - MSU is a good team that plays very well at home, and beating them would have required us to play very well, which we did not. We did not play poorly, but our effort was not commensurate with one that is required to be a good team on the road.

I still believe that our shot selection leaves something to be desired. MSU has held teams to around 31% shooting from behind the arc, but allows teams to shoot over 50% inside of it. We shot 9-29 (31%) from behind the arc but hit 15-23 (65%) inside of it. Lawrence, who is not 6-38 on the season from three (and 1-18 against good teams (essentially tier 1 and 2) managed to get off two three point shots, and Robbins, our 7' center took 4 three point attempts. Stute missed all four of his attempts, and has difficulty figuring out how to contribute offensively when his shots don't fall. QMB OTOH got 10 points and 4 offensive boards by living inside today.

Perhaps the refs were light on our calls and called a tight game against us, contributing to the FTA disparity. But a massive factor was that MSU only took 6 threes and were consistently attacking the rim, while we were content to throw up more three point attempts than two point attempts, limiting our opportunities to draw fouls. Robbins can be a big contributor to this effort, but not when he is spotted up 23' from the rim. The second half is particularly troubling, as we went 8-12 inside the arc and 4-17 from three. We did better with turnovers are were even on the boards, but it was at the line where we lost this game, as MSU outscored us by 10 from the line in the 2nd half.

For all the good that I've seen this year, we will occasionally backslide to settling for threes, oftentimes by players who just shouldn't be shooting them with any volume or at all. Maybe we don't beat MSU anyway as they are a good team at home, but we actually outrebounded them and really were able to exploit them inside when we tried.

[OldDude]

As usual Jason, good observations. Thanks !

[vutrain]

I would love to have seen fewer turnovers and one-two more threes made a critical time.

[Ndorefin]

The prediction was a 6 point loss and we lost by 5 - MSU is a good team that plays very well at home, and beating them would have required us to play very well, which we did not. We did not play poorly, but our effort was not commensurate with one that is required to be a good team on the road.

I still believe that our shot selection leaves something to be desired. MSU has held teams to around 31% shooting from behind the arc, but allows teams to shoot over 50% inside of it. We shot 9-29 (31%) from behind the arc but hit 15-23 (65%) inside of it. Lawrence, who is not 6-38 on the season from three (and 1-18 against good teams (essentially tier 1 and 2) managed to get off two three point shots, and Robbins, our 7' center took 4 three point attempts. Stute missed all four of his attempts, and has difficulty figuring out how to contribute offensively when his shots don't fall. QMB OTOH got 10 points and 4 offensive boards by living inside today.

Perhaps the refs were light on our calls and called a tight game against us, contributing to the FTA disparity. But a massive factor was that MSU only took 6 threes and were consistently attacking the rim, while we were content to throw up more three point attempts than two point attempts, limiting our opportunities to draw fouls. Robbins can be a big contributor to this effort, but not when he is spotted up 23' from the rim. The second half is particularly troubling, as we went 8-12 inside the arc and 4-17 from three. We did better with turnovers are were even on the boards, but it was at the line where we lost this game, as MSU outscored us by 10 from the line in the 2nd half.

For all the good that I've seen this year, we will occasionally backslide to settling for threes, oftentimes by players who just shouldn't be shooting them with any volume or at all. Maybe we don't beat MSU anyway as they are a good team at home, but we actually outrebounded them and really were able to exploit them inside when we tried.

I like to read your comments, but there are too many variables to rely on stats all the time. Yes, they outscored us by 10 from the line, but 7 of those occurred in the last 41 seconds, so that is a misleading stat. Actually, I thought we played a horrible game, with all the careless, unforced turnovers, which was what cost us the game. Our centers often receive the ball beyond the 3 point line, which is how our offense is designed. I have no problem with Robbins taking 3s, if he is open. If he had made 1 more, you could say he shot 50% from 3 for the game and all is well! The final nail was when Frank was at the 5 and Stute was at the 4 and neither can rebound. MSU scored 3 easy baskets off offensive rebounds during that rotation. I can’t believe how much we miss Mann and his toughness because we have no one else coming off the bench.

[Jason94]

The prediction was a 6 point loss and we lost by 5 - MSU is a good team that plays very well at home, and beating them would have required us to play very well, which we did not. We did not play poorly, but our effort was not commensurate with one that is required to be a good team on the road.

I still believe that our shot selection leaves something to be desired. MSU has held teams to around 31% shooting from behind the arc, but allows teams to shoot over 50% inside of it. We shot 9-29 (31%) from behind the arc but hit 15-23 (65%) inside of it. Lawrence, who is not 6-38 on the season from three (and 1-18 against good teams (essentially tier 1 and 2) managed to get off two three point shots, and Robbins, our 7' center took 4 three point attempts. Stute missed all four of his attempts, and has difficulty figuring out how to contribute offensively when his shots don't fall. QMB OTOH got 10 points and 4 offensive boards by living inside today.

Perhaps the refs were light on our calls and called a tight game against us, contributing to the FTA disparity. But a massive factor was that MSU only took 6 threes and were consistently attacking the rim, while we were content to throw up more three point attempts than two point attempts, limiting our opportunities to draw fouls. Robbins can be a big contributor to this effort, but not when he is spotted up 23' from the rim. The second half is particularly troubling, as we went 8-12 inside the arc and 4-17 from three. We did better with turnovers are were even on the boards, but it was at the line where we lost this game, as MSU outscored us by 10 from the line in the 2nd half.

For all the good that I've seen this year, we will occasionally backslide to settling for threes, oftentimes by players who just shouldn't be shooting them with any volume or at all. Maybe we don't beat MSU anyway as they are a good team at home, but we actually outrebounded them and really were able to exploit them inside when we tried.

I like to read your comments, but there are too many variables to rely on stats all the time. Yes, they outscored us by 10 from the line, but 7 of those occurred in the last 41 seconds, so that is a misleading stat. Actually, I thought we played a horrible game, with all the careless, unforced turnovers, which was what cost us the game. Our centers often receive the ball beyond the 3 point line, which is how our offense is designed. I have no problem with Robbins taking 3s, if he is open. If he had made 1 more, you could say he shot 50% from 3 for the game and all is well! The final nail was when Frank was at the 5 and Stute was at the 4 and neither can rebound. MSU scored 3 easy baskets off offensive rebounds during that rotation. I can’t believe how much we miss Mann and his toughness because we have no one else coming off the bench.

this is incorrect - they did score 7 points off FT's in the final 41 seconds, but we score 3 of our own, so they only outscored us by 4 in those final seconds. For the game they outscored us by 11 from the line and had 15 more attempts. In no way is that misleading IMO. And I didn't focus on TO's because that is what our offense does. We've only had 4 games all conference season where our TO rate has been less than 20% and two of those games were against UGA, which has one of the worst defenses we've faced all season and almost plays with a commitment to not turning opponents over.

Note that even if Robbins went 2-4 from three, I would still have an issue with our center taking just 1 2 point shot vs 4 three point attempts. I understand how the center does have the ball run through him at the top often times, but that doesn't preclude the screen and roll, which netted QMB a couple of buckets today. And while QMB does have the ball up top at times, he is often in the paint when the shot goes up, and has been a very good offensive rebounder this year. Robbins has a total of 4 offensive rebounds this season, and a very low offensive rebounding rate. Previously he was taking between 10 and 25% of his shots from three. this season it has gone up to 41% of his attempts, which is Luke Kornet territory, and Kornet played with Damian Jones. Dawid P took a lot of threes, but he played with Matt Freije.

I do agree that Frank is a poor rebounder for his size and Stute not much better, but that is all the more reason to keep inside the 7', 250 lb center who has shown in previous seasons to be a very good rebounder in the paint.

[AuricGoldfinger]

What's maddening is that the things this team has suffered from all season continue to plague it--silly unforced turnovers; no consistent scorers other than SPJ; and an inability to close out tight games. They're playing well enough to beat almost anyone in the league, but when all three of those things occur it's an uphill climb.

[dore74]

Agree with the frustration Auric, so close but yet so far...i'm sure the kids and staff are even more frustrated.
I simply don't think that we have the horses without Chatman (and maybe Mann) being aboard. Our subs just don't have the mojo and our core is good, but needs the help of a better supporting cast.
As I've whined all season, had we had a healthy Chatman and Robbins from the git go it could have been a surprisingly enjoyable season for all. Let's hope that RC is back and healthy for the SEC tourney and we can make some noise there.

[Foreverhopeful]

Good analysis. Agree- turnovers and the absence of Chatman and Mann really hurt. With Chatman in there the other team's defense really has to do some serious work. Robbins did not have a great game. A win would have been wonderful, but as Jason noted, we needed to have played really well- and we did not.

[charlestonalum]

What's maddening is that the things this team has suffered from all season continue to plague it--silly unforced turnovers; no consistent scorers other than SPJ; and an inability to close out tight games. They're playing well enough to beat almost anyone in the league, but when all three of those things occur it's an uphill climb.

If we have Chatman a lot of these problems go away or are reduced (as they were when he played, and I know you know that Auric) - we need that steady back court guy to lead the team in these end game situations - we miss him enormously.

[AuricGoldfinger]

What's maddening is that the things this team has suffered from all season continue to plague it--silly unforced turnovers; no consistent scorers other than SPJ; and an inability to close out tight games. They're playing well enough to beat almost anyone in the league, but when all three of those things occur it's an uphill climb.

If we have Chatman a lot of these problems go away or are reduced (as they were when he played, and I know you know that Auric) - we need that steady back court guy to lead the team in these end game situations - we miss him enormously.

Yeah, he really is the straw that stirs the drink.

Again, another season spent wondering "What if...?" THAT really is maddening.

[Ndorefin]

Jason wrote:

this is incorrect - they did score 7 points off FT's in the final 41 seconds, but we score 3 of our own, so they only outscored us by 4 in those final seconds. For the game they outscored us by 11 from the line and had 15 more attempts. In no way is that misleading IMO. And I didn't focus on TO's because that is what our offense does. We've only had 4 games all conference season where our TO rate has been less than 20% and two of those games were against UGA, which has one of the worst defenses we've faced all season and almost plays with a commitment to not turning opponents over.

Note that even if Robbins went 2-4 from three, I would still have an issue with our center taking just 1 2 point shot vs 4 three point attempts. I understand how the center does have the ball run through him at the top often times, but that doesn't preclude the screen and roll, which netted QMB a couple of buckets today. And while QMB does have the ball up top at times, he is often in the paint when the shot goes up, and has been a very good offensive rebounder this year. Robbins has a total of 4 offensive rebounds this season, and a very low offensive rebounding rate. Previously he was taking between 10 and 25% of his shots from three. this season it has gone up to 41% of his attempts, which is Luke Kornet territory, and Kornet played with Damian Jones. Dawid P took a lot of threes, but he played with Matt Freije.

I do agree that Frank is a poor rebounder for his size and Stute not much better, but that is all the more reason to keep inside the 7', 250 lb center who has shown in previous seasons to be a very good rebounder in the paint.
[/quote]


Those are some more impressive stats! So 4 of the 11 is .36363636, which is a significant number for 41 seconds of the game! Our offense is not designed to step out of bounds with the ball or fumble it off your foot or to just lose control without cause….I don’t know what those percentages are, but I believe they were significantly higher in this game. We weren’t discussing QMB, (who can’t shoot beyond 2 feet), but does a great job otherwise. I agree, it’s best to keep our bigs inside , but they were both out of he game when Frank played the 5. As far as Robbins shooting 3s, I’ll defer to Stack as far as whether he should or not.

I don’t want to argue with you, Jason, and I believe stats are important, but they don’t tell the whole story and can be misleading, at times. I think it’s a stretch to dismiss the fact we were fouling at the end, regardless of if we shot any free throws. I’m finished with this topic and you can post as many stats as you want….I’ll keep reading your posts because you are a great fan and point out some good info!!