Our resume

[Jason94]

We aren't a bubble team, but how far are we from being one?

Good wins (3) BYU (n) ARK (a) LSU (h)
Bad losses (3) Temple (h) USC (a) USC (h)

Potential changes to above - BYU has been in a bit of a slide having lost 4 in a row and if they don't stop it they could miss the tournament and not be quite as good a win as it seemed at the time. VCU is playing well enough to keep from being considered a bad loss, though the NET ratings looks at them a lot less favorably than the RPI did. None of our other wins are anywhere near good wins as we missed opportunities with SMU and Loyola Chicago.

Upcoming games will give us a number of opportunities and just a couple of landmines - Auburn, UT, UF, MSU, Bama are five such opportunities prior to the tournament. Beat three of those five (and assuming we also beat aTm and Ole Miss) gives us potentially 6 good wins as well as an 18-12 record - bubble territory. Would need at least two wins in the SEC-T and have the loss be to Uk or Auburn and hope the committee considers injuries.

Which is to say that being a bubble is probably not likely, but not impossible either. Those USC losses really hurt - completely different conversation if we were sitting at 15-8 (7-4) right now.

[cc11316]

I think the only path to the NCAA is winning the SEC tournament which of course is a long shot (to say the least). The NIT is within their grasp though and seems a more appropriate path for this program but even that will be challenging. There are 7 regular season games to go and no gimme's including @Tennessee/@Auburn coming next VU likely will need at least 3 more SEC wins and perhaps a tournament win to make it.

[buffy]

The fact that we're even discussing the possibility is progress.

[AuricGoldfinger]

The two South Carolina losses are still really painful. The SMU loss is a little less painful given it was on the road to what may be a pretty decent team after all, but still hurts given how we lost it (rapid disintegration of a 12-point halftime lead that featured some of the worst defense we've played in the Stackhouse era).

Also worth noting that a neutral site win over Stanford in Hawaii would have been a nice Quad 2 victory.

[Hutch37]

I don't understand anyone saying that we are out of tourney consideration- far from it. Quad 1 wins are what is critical and we are getting ready to have plenty of chances for those. I think the committee will/should give us more credit to our record with a fully stocked and healthy team. If we finish 500 or better in the SEC then a few SEC tourney wins very well might push us in or at the least have us squarely on the bubble. Finishing at .500 is much easier said than done but think how fired up the guys are knowing that we are back to being in the mix. My goal for this year was exactly that- being in the mix again and having the end of the regular season matter. And yes its hard to believe we dropped 2 shoulda coulda games to USC...

[MrMemorial]

I'd say SMU is at least pretty decent. They are 17-5 and beat (20-3) sixth ranked Houston last night.

Kendric Davis is a superb guard for his size.

[MemorialMagic]

I think it's pretty simple.

10-8 in the league and we're in. 9-9 and we're NIT unless we get to Sunday in the SEC Tourney. Anything else and we're outside looking in.

[dcdore]

I think it's pretty simple.

10-8 in the league and we're in. 9-9 and we're NIT unless we get to Sunday in the SEC Tourney. Anything else and we're outside looking in.

Tall order, not entirely impossible.

[Jason94]

I don't understand anyone saying that we are out of tourney consideration- far from it. Quad 1 wins are what is critical and we are getting ready to have plenty of chances for those. I think the committee will/should give us more credit to our record with a fully stocked and healthy team. If we finish 500 or better in the SEC then a few SEC tourney wins very well might push us in or at the least have us squarely on the bubble. Finishing at .500 is much easier said than done but think how fired up the guys are knowing that we are back to being in the mix. My goal for this year was exactly that- being in the mix again and having the end of the regular season matter. And yes its hard to believe we dropped 2 shoulda coulda games to USC...

I wasn't thinking of quads, but that does change things a little bit - technically the road loss to USC is only a quad 2 loss, but the home loss to VCU could become a quad 3 loss, but overall the ranking doesn't change. Our 3 Quad 1 wins actually compare somewhat favorably to other bubble teams, but we have zero quad 2 wins. Every game remaining on our schedule is a Quad 1 or 2 opportunity.

I'd put it that we are not eliminated from tournament consideration, but we will have to win against good teams at a much more consistent rate than we have previously. But this is much different than every season since 2017, which is a good change.

[mathguy]

We aren't a bubble team, but how far are we from being one?

Good wins (3) BYU (n) ARK (a) LSU (h)
Bad losses (3) Temple (h) USC (a) USC (h)

Potential changes to above - BYU has been in a bit of a slide having lost 4 in a row and if they don't stop it they could miss the tournament and not be quite as good a win as it seemed at the time. VCU is playing well enough to keep from being considered a bad loss, though the NET ratings looks at them a lot less favorably than the RPI did. None of our other wins are anywhere near good wins as we missed opportunities with SMU and Loyola Chicago.

Upcoming games will give us a number of opportunities and just a couple of landmines - Auburn, UT, UF, MSU, Bama are five such opportunities prior to the tournament. Beat three of those five (and assuming we also beat aTm and Ole Miss) gives us potentially 6 good wins as well as an 18-12 record - bubble territory. Would need at least two wins in the SEC-T and have the loss be to Uk or Auburn and hope the committee considers injuries.

Which is to say that being a bubble is probably not likely, but not impossible either. Those USC losses really hurt - completely different conversation if we were sitting at 15-8 (7-4) right now.

I've been thinking about this and wondering if we should be on "bubble watch lists" ... not because we would actually have a chance today, but as a team sorta kinda hanging on around the fringe of the bubble.

I was slightly horrified to look at realtimerpi and see they still have us down at 111. That doesn't seem fair. We are 81 in kenpom, which seems a bit more like where I'd think we belong. But we hypothetically split the next two (@UT and @Auburn) and take care of business against A&M ... we'd be 15-11(7-7) in a tough conference with a couple of really legit ones and no truly awful losses (unless I'm mistaken, none of our losses would be "Quadrant 4 losses"). I don't think that would put us in the tournament, but I feel like it ought to put us in the discussion for a few minutes.

[OldDude]

If we beat either UT or Auburn (very unlikely on Aub) , we will begin to attract attention.

[MrMemorial]

I've been thinking about this and wondering if we should be on "bubble watch lists" ... not because we would actually have a chance today, but as a team sorta kinda hanging on around the fringe of the bubble.

I was slightly horrified to look at realtimerpi and see they still have us down at 111. That doesn't seem fair. We are 81 in kenpom, which seems a bit more like where I'd think we belong. But we hypothetically split the next two (@UT and @Auburn) and take care of business against A&M ... we'd be 15-11(7-7) in a tough conference with a couple of really legit ones and no truly awful losses (unless I'm mistaken, none of our losses would be "Quadrant 4 losses"). I don't think that would put us in the tournament, but I feel like it ought to put us in the discussion for a few minutes.

Team Rankings . com after the last game said...

• After beating Missouri 70-62 yesterday, Vanderbilt is now projected to finish the regular season 15-15 (7-11 SEC).

• The odds that the Commodores make the NCAA tournament are currently 5%.

• We currently rank Vanderbilt as the #87 team in the country, and the #10 team in the SEC.

• The more precise final record expectation for Vanderbilt is 15.2 wins and 14.8 losses, slightly better than the rounded projection above.

• Vanderbilt probably won't get an at-large bid to the NCAA tournament, although they have an outside shot.

• As for an automatic bid ... we don't see it happening. There's always next year.

• Based on our projections, the Commodores will most likely finish the regular season either 16-14 or 15-15.

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Their SEC tourney projections at this time:
https://www.teamrankings.com/ncb/confer ... Vanderbilt

[Jason94]

We aren't a bubble team, but how far are we from being one?

Good wins (3) BYU (n) ARK (a) LSU (h)
Bad losses (3) Temple (h) USC (a) USC (h)

Potential changes to above - BYU has been in a bit of a slide having lost 4 in a row and if they don't stop it they could miss the tournament and not be quite as good a win as it seemed at the time. VCU is playing well enough to keep from being considered a bad loss, though the NET ratings looks at them a lot less favorably than the RPI did. None of our other wins are anywhere near good wins as we missed opportunities with SMU and Loyola Chicago.

Upcoming games will give us a number of opportunities and just a couple of landmines - Auburn, UT, UF, MSU, Bama are five such opportunities prior to the tournament. Beat three of those five (and assuming we also beat aTm and Ole Miss) gives us potentially 6 good wins as well as an 18-12 record - bubble territory. Would need at least two wins in the SEC-T and have the loss be to Uk or Auburn and hope the committee considers injuries.

Which is to say that being a bubble is probably not likely, but not impossible either. Those USC losses really hurt - completely different conversation if we were sitting at 15-8 (7-4) right now.

I've been thinking about this and wondering if we should be on "bubble watch lists" ... not because we would actually have a chance today, but as a team sorta kinda hanging on around the fringe of the bubble.

I was slightly horrified to look at realtimerpi and see they still have us down at 111. That doesn't seem fair. We are 81 in kenpom, which seems a bit more like where I'd think we belong. But we hypothetically split the next two (@UT and @Auburn) and take care of business against A&M ... we'd be 15-11(7-7) in a tough conference with a couple of really legit ones and no truly awful losses (unless I'm mistaken, none of our losses would be "Quadrant 4 losses"). I don't think that would put us in the tournament, but I feel like it ought to put us in the discussion for a few minutes.

Not sure - we are a weird team with a weird resume - not a lot of teams have three quadrant 1 wins that aren't either considered to be in the tournament or on the bubble. But we have no sort of good wins either (tier 2), which is really unusual for a bubble teams. Losing to VCU hurts us because it was at home, and they were a borderline team, but not as much as losing to Temple or USC at home. Losing to SMU on the road is not bad, but definitely represents a missed opportunity, as winning there would have actually been a tier 1 win, and we actually had a chance but faded when they made their run.

I'm glad the committee isn't using RPI for tournament selection - you are correct that it is not a particularly good measure of how good a team is - while the explainer on the NET ratings notes that it isn't kenpom, after the preseason ranking weightings fall off of kenpom, they match up pretty well (82 in NET for us and 81 in kenpom). The main difference is probably that the NET ratings tends to overrate road wins and underrate home wins.

[alathIN]

We're a different team when Chatman plays.
If he stays fully healthy and Robbins shakes the rust off, then I think bubble talk could be within reason - but still very optimistic. Yes this is a team that's capable of beating good teams but also capable of losing to very mediocre teams. We'd need to find a high degree of consistency which is precisely what we've lacked this season.

Vandy fans' mood has flipped from "doom and gloom, fire the coach," to "all we have to do is go 6-1 in the next 7 games and win the SEC tournament."
Going to the NIT is more realistic, and I think this team could actually have some success in the NIT.

[Jason94]

We're a different team when Chatman plays.
If he stays fully healthy and Robbins shakes the rust off, then I think bubble talk could be within reason - but still very optimistic. Yes this is a team that's capable of beating good teams but also capable of losing to very mediocre teams. We'd need to find a high degree of consistency which is precisely what we've lacked this season.

Vandy fans' mood has flipped from "doom and gloom, fire the coach," to "all we have to do is go 6-1 in the next 7 games and win the SEC tournament."
Going to the NIT is more realistic, and I think this team could actually have some success in the NIT.

It was more that this is the first season since 2017 where we haven't been eliminated from tournament consideration by this point. Still unlikely and I'm not suggesting in any way that we get our hopes up, but it does represent a step forward. We used to go through this most every season and it sucks to not be relevant at all in the tournament conversation. Not quite dumb and dumber "so you're telling me I have a chance" unlikely, but it we would have to win at least a couple of games where we are the underdog, and avoid losing any game where we are favored or where it is a toss-up. Very tall order but not an impossibility.

[dore74]

i'm so happy to see a thread like this. We indeed have a real live basketball team once again.

I saw we are 6.5 point dogs to the VOLs tomorrow night, so even Vegas shows us some respect these days. I have no idea how the rest of the season plays out and agree that NIT is a more likely upside than NCAA's. Nevertheless, while we may be disappointed, we have a remaining regular season schedule that let us determine our own fate.

I would imagine that the team and the staff are pretty psyched at this point. No more injuries, killer defense and some decent shooting nights are what we need. Here's hoping

[MrMemorial]

Even finishing 15-15 or 16-14 is not a guarantee of an NIT bid. They will have auto bids to teams that win the regular season but lose the conference tournament. Let's take a look at some of the hypothetical scenarios out there.

Toledo wins the MAC but Ohio wins the tournament. The NIT is required to invite Toledo.
Jax St. or Liberty win the ASun but a darkhorse like Florida Gulf Coast wins the tourney.
Montana St. wins the Big Sky but Weber State wins the tournament.
Longwood wins the Big South but Winthrop win the tourney.
Long Beach State wins the Big West but Cal St. Fullerton wins the tournament.

Others that could happen in league tournaments and a certain number will....
UNC-Wilmington knocked out by Towson
Cleveland State gets upset by Wright State
Chattanooga Mocs get upset by Furman

And numerous others. It always happens.

[Jason94]

i'm so happy to see a thread like this. We indeed have a real live basketball team once again.

I saw we are 6.5 point dogs to the VOLs tomorrow night, so even Vegas shows us some respect these days. I have no idea how the rest of the season plays out and agree that NIT is a more likely upside than NCAA's. Nevertheless, while we may be disappointed, we have a remaining regular season schedule that let us determine our own fate.

I would imagine that the team and the staff are pretty psyched at this point. No more injuries, killer defense and some decent shooting nights are what we need. Here's hoping

6.5 points is surprising especially since it is at TBA. Do the Vols have an injury to a key player? That spread suggests that it is a near pick-em game on a neutral court.

[MrMemorial]

Per a uut spokesperson, the viles starting forward Olivier Nkamhoua is likely out for the season due to an ankle injury that will require surgery. Chief Noc-A-Homa was averaging 8.6/5.6 but was hitting 44.8% from three.

[Jason94]

Per a uut spokesperson, the viles starting forward Olivier Nkamhoua is likely out for the season due to an ankle injury that will require surgery. Chief Noc-A-Homa was averaging 8.6/5.6 but was hitting 44.8% from three.

He's pretty good overall but they only use him for around 20 mpg. They do have a few other big men as well. He takes a little more than 1-3 per game and was only 4-14 in league play, so they won't miss that part of his game very much. He is their best shotblocker however. Their 7 footer is a better rebounder but doesn't appear to be as polished. His absence might move the line 1 point maybe? Maybe he is more valuable to them than his numbers suggest, but they did go into Starkville and beat MSU by 9 without him in the last game.