Large Freshmen Classes First seasons (long)

[Jason94]

There is actually a lot we can draw from to get an idea of how good a team we are likely to have next year. We currently have 4 signed players, 3 of which are rated as 4 star by 247's composite ranking, which is an average of each rating service that rates the players. The three four stars rank in the top 120 or so, with Dort highest at #94. This is very good ratings, but lower than some of our most highly rated prospects such as Shan Foster, John Jenkins, Jeff Taylor or even Dai Jon Parker.

We've had a number of seasons where we brought in an equally good class and had to rely on a number of the freshmen to contribute. Those seasons are 2001, 2005, 2009, 2015 and 2019. Of those seasons the best season was probably the 2005 season, which we finished 20-14 (8-8) with a final 8 appearance in the NIT. 2015 was similar with a 21-14 (9-9) season and a similar finish in the NIT. 2009 was the next best season 19-12 (8-8), then the 2001 season 14-15 (4-12) and then finally the 2019 season 9-23 (0-19).

In 2005, we did return a pretty good nucleus of Mario Moore, Corey Smith, Jason Holwerda and David Przybyszewski and Julian Terrell, as well as role players in Cage and Skuchas. So while Shan Foster stepped in and grabbed a starting role as a freshmen, Carroll and Gordon played supporting roles but were a consistent part of the rotation. Foster was the most talented player on that team as a freshmen, but there was enough experience there to not require him to take on too large of a role.

In 2015, the team had only two upperclassmen - Siakam and 5th year SR Henderson. Henderson got injured so he could get a 6th season, but Siakam had perhaps the most unexpected SR season I've ever seen. After showing almost nothing in his first two seasons, he had one of the most effective seasons ever for a VU player'. We additionally returned two freshmen posts in Kornet and Jones, who took their lumps as freshmen and became a somewhat dominant interior duo as sophomores. Still, the starting guard spots were freshmen as was the starting SF spot. 5 freshmen played at least 16 minutes and LaChance led the team in minutes.

2009 had a similarly very young team with only 2 upperclassmen in Beal and Drake. Beal was an excellent PG and the team also had sophomore Ogilvy, who was the SEC FOTY and an All-SEC pre-season selection. Two freshmen started in Taylor and Tinsley and three additional freshmen were a part of the rotation and generally played like freshmen.

2001 relied on 5 freshmen in the rotation, with Freije, Lakey and Richmond playing starter's minutes. That team had a couple of senior starters in Williams and LaPointe, but LaPointe really struggled with back issues. Chuck Moore provided stability as a junior transfer guard and Sam Howard was a three point specialist whose three point shot abandoned him that season (shades of Trey Thomas). This was perhaps the team that had the least amount of returning talent, and the freshmen talent was good, but on the lower end of the teams listed here.

2019 returned on senior in Joe Toye, who never fulfilled his promise, and Saben Lee, Clevon Brown and Max Evans. Otherwise there were a number of transfer adds in Wetzel, Moyer, and Ryan. Of course we had two 5 star freshmen in Shittu and Garland as well as a high 4 star recruit in NeSmith. In reality, we returned one player who was a legit SEC starter in Lee, and were going to rely on some combination of transfers and freshmen to lead the team and make up most of the starters. Garland went down, and then the entire thing crashed and burned, but I will note that the preseason kenpom ranking of the team was 68th. There wasn't any particular reason to think that even with Garland healthy that we were a team that was destined to make a deep tournament run.

Next season the best case is we return Pippen, Wright and everyone else currently on the roster who is contributing as a starter. Then we would need one of the freshmen to come in and contribute as a starter in the post, and a couple to round out the rotation. If Pippen doesn't return, then you are probably starting Lawrence at point and relying on a freshman to come in and start at the off guard spot and provide a decent amount of scoring.

If past seasons are any guide, best case scenario is a .500 ish SEC season (8-10 to 10-8) as a bubble team and one freshman showing signs of being a future star with a couple of others looking like clear starters as sophomores. A scenario without Pippen looks a little better than the 2001 season, maybe 6 or 7 conference wins. In other words, hopefully this will be the foundation for some really good teams in 2023 or 2024. Certainly a problem at the moment is that none of the players outside of Pippen and Wright have played like or shown signs of being legitimate SEC starters on a good SEC team. Because of this if Pippen doesn't return we will be relying heavily on freshmen to be significant contributors, and it is unlikely that they will be able to do so consistently. And this also suggests we will have a bit of a depth problem (potentially) in 2024 even if everything goes will unless a lot of players develop more than they've shown so far.

Note this is not suggesting any course of action on CJS. Almost regardless of who is coaching this team we require more patience from the fan base. I see how it could get better, but the holes in the current soph and freshman classes are going to be a problem for the next couple of season.

[dore74]

Thanks for the in depth, albeit somewhat depressing, analysis.
Seems to me that talent evaluation at a school like ours is paramount. I was hoping that this staff would be able to spot diamonds in the rough or guys otherwise overlooked in putting this and next year's classes together. So far it does not seem that way. While transfers are an increasingly large part of the story, they can be awfully short term solutions.
I'd be surprised if SPJr returns next year...hopefully one or more of the frosh or transfers on this team has the lights turn on before too long and becomes a force on the team. Regarding our two injured starters, if they came back this month or next would they have eligibility next year?

[AuricGoldfinger]

Regarding our two injured starters, if they came back this month or next would they have eligibility next year?

They can't play more than 30% of the season or play after the midseason mark.

[Nashmann]

We have 4 coming in so 4 spots must open. Daniels leaving opens 1 slot. I doubt Pippen returns that opens 2 slots. Chatman and Liam would seem like last 2 slots. QMB could leave but might return as we would have no center other than freshman Dort. I have a feeling we will have 1 or 2 more transfers out.