NCAA Tourney/Selection Thread

[UltimateVUFan]

I know this discussion is sprinkled all over the threads of the past week or so, but figured one consolidated thread might be nice. So…

Thoughts on selection Sunday. Are they in? I know we can argue and rationalize it all we want, but what are people’s honest thoughts on whether or not they will actually get in? We all (well…most of us) believe they should be.

I had a few thoughts just a moment ago.
(1) VU finished with more SEC wins (13) than all but Bama and TX A&M.
(2) 10 of their 21 conference games came against the teams that finished 1-5 in the regular season standings.
(3) They notched 3 wins against those teams.
(4) They swept the 4 teams that finished behind them for 5 totals wins, three of which were against teams that will supposedly make the tournament over them.

Despite all this, I fear that the committee will snub them based on a flawed metric system. I know some people will post and defend that system. But by the simplest eye test, VU’s resume should get them in over those other SEC teams.

My heart says the committee will recognize and reward the late run.
My gut says they will be on the outside looking in.

Thoughts???

[dcdore]

No NCAA for VU this year.

Let's go win the NIT!!

[GoheenFan88]

I think they are in.

Imo they are better than Mstate, Arkansas and Auburn.
On par or a little better than ut and uk.

If they don’t make it after this great run then this will be the biggest screw job since the 2000 team got the shaft.

[A32Win]

The NET is an interesting ranking system.

I like the one from teamrankings.com that has Vandy ranked as 41 with a 95% chance of getting into the NCAA Tournament.

[fldore]

Probably depends on how much they weigh recent performance vs entire body of work. Over the last month and a half we've played like one of the best teams in SEC. Assuming 5 or 6 SEC teams get in tourney and we've easily been one if the 5 or 6 best teams in conference. But obviously we get hurt by the entire body of work. This isnt the NBA where half the teams make the playoffs. Going forward more attention needs to be paid to non conference schedule.

Hopefully selection committee values the good stretch of play.

[bernstml19]

No NCAA for VU this year.

Let's go win the NIT!!

What an amazing year. I saw a game and uncancelled my Sling TV.

This is correct. Next year is looking fun though!

[dore74]

The conventional wisdom appears to be that we just fall short. Likely didn’t help ourselves today.

Nevertheless, seems like a Cinderella team always sneaks in and lord knows that’s us this year.

So, I agree with ultimate, my head says NIT and my heart says NCAA. Regardless, this is a squad Grantland Rice would be proud of. Been one of the best of my over 50 VU basketball years

[vandy05]

I say that we are on the outside looking in. It was just a touch too little too late. My gut tells me that if we were able to win either LSU part one, or the Grambling game, we would be in. We just didn't leave ourselves enough margin. That being said, I think we're playing like one of the best four teams in the conference right now. We will have a legitimate grip about not getting in and we will be a one seed in the NIT.

[utahozzie]

I don’t know if a team that finished 4th In sec has ever missed the NCAA tournament…would be a historically bad result

[nyyankeeDore]

The NET is an interesting ranking system.

I like the one from teamrankings.com that has Vandy ranked as 41 with a 95% chance of getting into the NCAA Tournament.

An optimistic prediction (#10 - 97%).

https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-tourn ... edictions/

[mathguy]

Let me just put into perspective what the selection committee is saying if Miss St/Auburn get in, but we don't.

They are saying that if we have beaten Grambling and Southern Miss, but lost to UT and @Rupp, we would have had a more compelling case.

Because if you change the results of those 4 games, our resume becomes A LOT more similar to Miss St and Auburn's.

[dore74]

Let me just put into perspective what the selection committee is saying if Miss St/Auburn get in, but we don't.

They are saying that if we have beaten Grambling and Southern Miss, but lost to UT and @Rupp, we would have had a more compelling case.

Because if you change the results of those 4 games, our resume becomes A LOT more similar to Miss St and Auburn's.

Interesting perspective thanks MG. Gives me some additional hope that this evening could actually end up enjoyable.

As an aside, while the Athletic has us as a near miss, the article’s discussion clearly left us as a real possibility.

[UltimateVUFan]

Let me just put into perspective what the selection committee is saying if Miss St/Auburn get in, but we don't.

They are saying that if we have beaten Grambling and Southern Miss, but lost to UT and @Rupp, we would have had a more compelling case.

Because if you change the results of those 4 games, our resume becomes A LOT more similar to Miss St and Auburn's.

Interesting point. I know the committee claims not to look as closely at end of season results as it does at the full resume, but when you put it that way, the argument for exclusion seems asinine. Shouldn’t MARCH Madness be more about who you’ve beaten in February after a full season of team development than who you lost to in November?

[alathIN]

The NET is an interesting ranking system.

I like the one from teamrankings.com that has Vandy ranked as 41 with a 95% chance of getting into the NCAA Tournament.

I "like" it too, but just the other day someone here cited an analysis of which services were good at predicting the NCAA selections and teamrankings.com was the worst.
Hopefully this is one of the occasions they are correct.

VU's resume has a lot of quality wins.
I don't really understand the emphasis on "bad losses." It's too much like the silly transitive wins game. VU lost to Grambling, who sucks, therefore VU sucks. OK, well UT, UK, and MSU all lost to VU so they must suck even worse.
If we'd beaten Grambling, Southern Miss, and LSU, but never beat Kentucky or Tennessee, I don't think fans would say that was a more satisfying season.
However in that alternative reality season, I admit, I probably would find the other bubble teams' bad losses to be unassailable evidence of their epic world-historical suckage.

[utahozzie]

Last time I checked, the tournament is full of good teams only. Not bad teams. Vanderbilt would not be playing any bad teams in the tournament so let’s measure how they did against great teams. They did very well.

[TwoSaints]

I just think everyone should keep one thing in mind: The committee hasn’t said anything. All of this talk is just people’s opinions. I think Lunardi is relying too much on the NET, just as he did last year when he was certain that Rutgers wouldn’t get in. The NET is one tool they use but there are others. At this point, though, we don’t know how they’ll choose. Personally I think we’ll get in, perhaps in the First Four. But I wouldn’t bet much on it.

[MrMemorial]

The demise of Clemson and Michigan is going to pave the way for us. Pitt may be out now as well.

Mississippi St. and UNC might be headed to the NIT as well.

[Doreknox]

I think we are very close to getting in but won't. This team has been remarkable since the Bama game but the wins started happening too late. If we don't make the NCAAs this year, then go win the NIT. I will be just as proud of them.

With everyone coming back, a good transfer or two coming in and a better start next year, we could compete for the SEC Championship.

[Junnah]

Found this older article when trying to identify predictors of tournament success. Would love to see an updated version to see if those premises still hold. Am not suggesting that the bar to get in is based only on ability to win it all but wondered how often teams that compile streaks of at least 6 wins did.

[A32Win]

So this morning teamrankings.com does indeed have Vandy listed as a 10-seed with a 97% probability of being in the NCAA Tournament, as pointed out above. They rank Vandy as #40 which seems way more appropriate than the ridiculous 79 the net came up with, imho.

At a 97% probability if Vandy is not picked I will never look at their website again but if the Dores make the cut then respect will be due.