Wednesday prediction

[dallasdore]

Record picking the CWS games so far: 12-3. Feeling like Nostradomus (sp?) here...

OK, we just got blown out. Relax. I've been calling it for days on here, with Little starting we were toast. And it happened and we were. I wrote we were probably going to lose anyway even with Reilly or McElvain starting, but we had no chance with Little. Just not big enough for this stage. It happens. Moving on...

Miss State versus Vandy. Now all the chips are on the table. Miss State looked like they were having fun tonight, but I think I only counted TWO extra base hits. Really, not many hard hit balls. And they were relaxed and it was coming easy for them. Tomorrow, they have to contend with Rocker, with a rested pen.

Now, Rocker is a PROVEN Big-game pitcher. That is a given. That is big. The only thing that really concerns me is how much he will have in the tank, and will he be left in the game just past when he should be. We've got a fresh bag of M&M's, plus Fischer. Don't leave him in. And he has given up 2-3 runs against good hitting teams lately. Unfortunately, tomorrow night 3 runs may end up being enough. If Rocker can give us a solid 5 innings, we'll need to take it. If he can give us 6, take it and run. Unless he's sitting under 90 pitches after 6 with no threats, we cannot let him stay in there.

On the other hand, Miss State has their dream bridge of Bednar to Sims. They can go up to 10 innings with just those two, assuming they are the normal effective. And nothing about our offense in the CWS says they shouldn't be. But who knows how our hitters will react in a winner take all situation tomorrow. None of them started in 2019. This is their first time playing for all the marbles.

Our offense cannot be patient against their pitchers tomorrow. To win, we will strike out at least 12 times, probably more like 15, maybe more. Batters have to be aggressive, because those pair of pitchers are not going to nibble, they are going to attack. And Bednar may be running on fumes because he is on very short rest. Matter of fact, if ANY pitcher in the game tries to nibble, that team will lose, even Miss State. Our offense is struggling, so will have to find a way to get hits and score runs. Patience at the plate means we are doomed even if Rocker is pitching a shutout.

Their offense will be held down, nothing like tonight where they were patient against unsure pitchers. The limelight tomorrow will feature stars on both sides, and which one is able to scratch out enough runs will win the title. Because this is the last game and because it is such a toss-up between two GREAT programs, I am switching it up and splitting my prediction. Hey, I've pretty much called almost all of this CWS (except that stupid UT-VA opening game, should've known better!). But tomorrow is literally too tough to call. Congratulations to the winner (I just HOPE IT IS US!).

Signing off with...

IF Rocker goes 6 innings (or possibly more) with max 1 run (2 is possible, though) allowed: Vanderbilt over Mississippi State.

IF Rocker allows 3 runs or more, or goes under 6 innings pitched: Mississippi State over Vanderbilt.

[PeteFox]

If VU plays better than MSU, they win, otherwise they lose. Some prediction.

[Dorewithaflare]

How many times this season have you saw Brown and Corbin stand over there an wait til a pitcher is dead in the water to go get him.An who really thought that Rielly was coming in there and do well. This team has two good starters and maybe three good relievers,You go pass that you have no chance.

[VUDU]

We have three pitchers (Rocker, McElvain, and Murphy) with more rest than their two (Bednar and Sims). Also, remember, their pitchers are good, but not infallible. We scored against Bednar (5.0 innings) and Sims (2.2 innings) in the regular season, although only one run against each of them.

However, our hitting has been anemic (almost non-existent) the last 17 innings. Our hitters need to do whatever they did to prepare for the first inning on Monday. Relax. Pretty obvious they're pressing too hard. I kind of disagree about being aggressive. I say let Bednar get his pitch count up (remember he's on only three days rest). I think Sims pitched quite a few pitches on Saturday, also, didn't he?

This is a very difficult game to call, but I have to go with Rocker and our bullpen in this situation. We've never lost an NCAA tournament game in which Rocker has started. Hopefully, he can go at least 7 innings and we can go straight to Murphy. If not, I wonder if Maldonado could pitch, say, one inning. Also, I don't even doubt that, if we need to, that Corbs wouldn't have Leiter pitch to a batter or two.

[kommodore]

I will cheer on this team tonight, and be thrilled if they can pull it off. They CAN win, I'm just not sure that they WILL win. Too many errant throws, fielding bobbles, "stuck in glove" moments, walks given up (outside of our prime-time arms), bats left on shoulders, etc. -- honestly, when I look back over this entire CWS, I am almost surprised that we are sitting in this position today (game #3 of the finals)! So clearly there is something to be said for having a champion's mentality, and believing in your team (& coaches) at all costs. Regardless of what happens, this team has still been fun to follow and watch this year -- and when your team can get to this stage, it always reminds me that there is nothing that compares to good college baseball!

GO VANDY! ANCHOR DOWN!!!

[fldore]

Was an ugly game but not completely unexpected. We've been carried by 4 pitchers (maybe 5 if you want to throw some love to McElvain) ever since the super regionals. This was the first game where none of them pitched. And without any of them on the mound, this isn't a good team right now. I've said this a few times over the last week but I remember early in the year, maybe halfway into the year, there was talk this could be one of the best offenses we've had under Corbin. I'm not savvy enough about baseball to understand what happened but I don't think our offensive collapse can be attributed to just tougher opponents. Even in Omaha, we've allowed some pitchers with big ERA's to completely shut us down. I don't know if teams just figured out we don't handle off speed pitches well or have done a better job fooling our hitters who seem to stare at a lot of strikes down the middle and swing at junk off the plate. Maybe we keep swinging for the fences too much and haven't done enough to get runners on putting pressure on the pitchers and the defense. Maybe we're feeling the pressure. I don't know but it's been ugly for awhile now. You could see it slowly getting worse as the season went on but it's at it's worst right now.

As far as tonight, we need Rocker, Maldo, and Murphy to be at their best or close to it. Rocker has pitched well in Omaha although maybe not his absolute best. And he looked pretty exhausted after friday's game against NC State. Hoping he has enough gas for one more good performance. We probably need a 1 run over 5-6 inning performance from him. And then 1-2 innings for Maldo and 2 innings for Murphy. Wishing we hadn't used Maldo as much as we did in game 1 but that is the reality of our pitching depth.

Feels like we need to win a 2-1 or 3-2 kind of game. If Miss St gets 4 or 5 seems unlikely we'll have enough to overcome that. Since runs will likely be at a premium, I think our guys need to be more aggressive on the basepaths and I think we need to manufacture as many runs as possible. If we got a guy on first with no outs, we need to move him over. None of our hitters are good enough right now where we can afford to let them swing for the fences. Take the out and move a guy over.

And hopefully no weather delay.

[vandyhank]

Too many errors.

[commadore]

Actually, it has been bad hitting for 24.2 innings. We had a total of 6 hits against NC State when they basically had nothing but 7-10 era pitchers. Then 5 and 4 against MSU. If we can't manage 8-10 hits, we will get beat tonight. Can't rely on MSU walking and hitting 5 or 6 guys.

[vandyhank]

I think it was wrong to put Little (a17 year-old) in that pressure situation. Moreover, we back him up with a quick error and a ball stuck in the glove at short. He was fragile to begin with and our fielding made him more so.

[commadore]

I think it was wrong to put Little (a17 year-old) in that pressure situation. Moreover, we back him up with a quick error and a ball stuck in the glove at short. He was fragile to begin with and our fielding made him more so.

Watch out, someone will be asking if you are perfect. Personally, I agree with you.

[Wolfpack73]

I.dont know anything about msu but I took a look at the boxscore from last night. The top hitters in the order are vicious. Didnt realize they were that good. Batting averages off the charts

[Wolfpack73]

Oops was looking at the on base percentage not the BA. Lol. I knew that couldn't be that high. They still dangerous hitters tho

[fldore]

Oops was looking at the on base percentage not the BA. Lol. I knew that couldn't be that high. They still dangerous hitters tho

If you looked at ours you wouldnt believe it. Our offensive stats are better across the board. Higher BA, OBP, Slug (significantly higher), HR, triples, doubles, SB, etc... I'm not sure there is any offensive category they beat us in. Per player our highest OPS is better than their best player's OPS. Our #2 is higher than their #2. On paper it's a total mismatch in fact. They've even left more men on base than we have.

But would anyone believe that having watched our offense the last 3 weeks? The talent is there, something just needs to click. And it needs to be clicked back on within the next 2 hours.