Take deep breath, step back from ledge

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alathIN
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Take deep breath, step back from ledge

Post by alathIN »

Step back from the ledge, people.

Firstly, and for the 10 billionth time: the portal and NIL were not voluntary moves by the NCAA. They would have been delighted to retain their previous power position. These changes were imposed by the courts including the Supreme Court of the United States who basically told the NCAA that they did not have any right to the powers they previously enjoyed.

Secondly, all the players who left were either projected to get less playing time next season, or never earned significant playing time in the first place. I can't blame them for going somewhere else their talents are more needed.

It would have been nice to have Wright back. He was no longer getting starter minutes but would have been an extremely valuable bench player. Big picture: an unheralded recruit who comes in and performs way beyond expectations for four years, academic all-SEC every year, graduates and moves on for grad school can hardly be styled as the death knell for college athletics.

Assuming Lawrence is not drafted it appears we have kept the players we most needed to keep. We have three freshmen who look poised to increase their roles as sophomores and an incoming class likely to contribute in the backcourt and frontcourt. Plus we have roster room for the exploding portal activity that's causing us to melt down.

This overall good picture is the main reason for the transfers. Fercryinoutloud we spent half the season complaining about why Thomas was getting so many minutes, now we're melting down because he won't be getting any Vanderbilt minutes next season.


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Re: Take deep breath, step back from ledge

Post by Vandysmith »

They must not care about basketball. Who know what they or thinking.
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Re: Take deep breath, step back from ledge

Post by Vandysmith »

Why not we pay the player to stay.
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Re: Take deep breath, step back from ledge

Post by charlestonalum »

Vandysmith wrote: Wed Mar 29, 2023 11:47 am Why not we pay the player to stay.
Maybe others are paying more - that's the problem if it just boils down to $'s. We will never win that...
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Re: Take deep breath, step back from ledge

Post by Jason94 »

alathIN wrote: Wed Mar 29, 2023 11:32 am Step back from the ledge, people.

Firstly, and for the 10 billionth time: the portal and NIL were not voluntary moves by the NCAA. They would have been delighted to retain their previous power position. These changes were imposed by the courts including the Supreme Court of the United States who basically told the NCAA that they did not have any right to the powers they previously enjoyed.

Secondly, all the players who left were either projected to get less playing time next season, or never earned significant playing time in the first place. I can't blame them for going somewhere else their talents are more needed.

It would have been nice to have Wright back. He was no longer getting starter minutes but would have been an extremely valuable bench player. Big picture: an unheralded recruit who comes in and performs way beyond expectations for four years, academic all-SEC every year, graduates and moves on for grad school can hardly be styled as the death knell for college athletics.

Assuming Lawrence is not drafted it appears we have kept the players we most needed to keep. We have three freshmen who look poised to increase their roles as sophomores and an incoming class likely to contribute in the backcourt and frontcourt. Plus we have roster room for the exploding portal activity that's causing us to melt down.

This overall good picture is the main reason for the transfers. Fercryinoutloud we spent half the season complaining about why Thomas was getting so many minutes, now we're melting down because he won't be getting any Vanderbilt minutes next season.
Excellent post. It stinks that Shelby didn't turn out with us, but if you trust CJS' judgement, it is difficult to be too broken up by his departure - he couldn't get PT ahead of a player at his position (thomas) who is barely 6' in shoes, and shot 30% from three. And Thomas leaving is surprising in that it is difficult to see him in a better situation from the crossection of PT and high level basketball, but his minutes theoretically should be extremely easy to replace from the portal. A Rodney Chatman type of player soaking up Thomas' minutes could mean a net +5 ppg next season in combined offensive and defensive improvements.

I've commented on the incongruency between Dia's size and his actual game results, so while he might develop into something great, it would require great improvement in most facets of his game. Losing

Wright is the one player that does hurt, but you correctly pointed out that he has done everything could have asked of him, and he is probably making this move from a career and academic standpoint as much as basketball one, if not more. This is akin to Jalen Hurts transferring to Oklahoma - I'm not sure how one can be mad about the guy who willed up to our first win against UK in 7 years and first win at Rupp in 16 years.

The wildcard is Lawrence, who appears to be testing the waters. He has talent, but just at the end of the seasons showed signs of being an Alpha dog type of players where prior to that he was a bit inconsistent. I think he would need to display more consistency and show that he can hit the three consistently as well to get serious consideration for PT on an NBA roster. If he does return you have an excellent starting backcourt, with a backup point that showed promise and an incoming combo guard that might have the most talent of the four. In the frontcourt you have Smith who I would say is most well positioned to have a breakout season next year and a good potential 1-2 punch at Center. Roberts at the wing as a freshman looks promising as does Lang, though you never know how freshmen will perform.

CJS is wising up to the game (I think) and seen how a good transfer from the portal can make an immediate difference. While it can work both ways and see us losing players, often times players from the portal are easier to project as they have numbers that were earned against actual D1 competition, which cannot be said for true freshmen. Given what we've lost, I can easily see CJS replacing the minutes with much more complete players, as each of the players who have entered the portal outside of Wrigth were very one dimensional on offense (all four's best attribute were shooting the three pointer, with middling success at best). Between Dia, Stute, Shelby and Thomas, it was actually Thomas who hit the highest percentage of his shots inside the arc, at 37%, which is not good).

The good thing about the portal is that you can quickly adjust from recruiting misses. This is something that was much more difficult to do in the past. I look at what has occurred so far as a net positive for the program, assuming that CJS' attitude regarding the portal isn't negative (and I see no reason for it to be so).
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Re: Take deep breath, step back from ledge

Post by alathIN »

Vandysmith wrote: Wed Mar 29, 2023 11:46 am They must not care about basketball. Who know what they or thinking.
Really?
You've been watching Trey Thomas and Jordan Wright bust their butts and play their hearts out for the past 3-4 years and your conclusion is they don't care about basketball?
Thomas was going to be buried on the bench behind two all-SEC level guards, a rising sophomore who looks ready for a bigger role next year, and a highly regarded incoming freshman. Want to actually play basketball is probably why he transferred.

What would you have said to Minnesota fans who were badmouthing Robbins when he decided to come to Vanderbilt? I guess Manjon must be another loser who just doesn't care about basketball.
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Re: Take deep breath, step back from ledge

Post by utahozzie »

Im excited to see who stack brings in. If he gets the right guys next year can be special. Can’t afford to miss on recruits and the portal though. If we’re not keeping recruits we gotta be solid in portal. Or Vice versa. This is a huge offseason for stack
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Re: Take deep breath, step back from ledge

Post by Hutch37 »

Really like the thoughtful commentary. A good question that may not be answered is what was CJS role in any of these departures. I bet that he suggested to Tyrin to go see what the NBA scouts have to say- our guys have done that in past years and it seemed to be helpful in their development. He has been successful with getting multiple players to the NBA. Remember his perceived role is not just to the school but to the players. Dean Smith told a bunch of guys to go pro early because that is what was best for them. This approach gets you great players into your program. Dia was disappointing because he was a local kid with promise- since HS he has loved the 3 point shot but the lack of quickness might make it hard to play wing. To me a big one is Dort- definitely hope that he realizes what Stack can do for him and that if he doesn't end up starting next year(and he probably will) that at worst he will play a ton of minutes. I was surprised at Thomas leaving just because of the amount of faith that CJS had in him - which was probably much more than the average fan. When Manjon got kicked out of the Ark game I told my son we were toast and boy was I wrong- Trey was a key part of our crazy 62 point explosion after halftime. Maybe he is going to a mid major where he thinks he might have the chance at doing more. Wright was my favorite since his freshman year. This year did not play out exactly as expected but he has been a great blessing to have for 4 years .
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Re: Take deep breath, step back from ledge

Post by baseball1234 »

I love the optimism but color me from Missouri.

Do we not have the same problem with transfers as exists with football? Granted, with basketball a few players can make a huge difference, but our target group of transfers is much smaller than other schools'. Our administration apparently will not allow players to come in late in their careers to obtain a Vanderbilt degree without having completed a majority of their academics at Vanderbilt. Granted, there are exceptions and there are grad transfers, but our talent pool is small compared to our basketball competitors. We need to vastly improve over this year so that even on an off night we don't lose to our weakest opponents. We need some big time players. I hope that we get them. Time will tell.
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Re: Take deep breath, step back from ledge

Post by Go Vandy! »

While the NCAA didn't institute NIL, which they KNEW was coming for decades, they didn't do anything to regulate it or take care of s/a's who don't have a $100 mil future. They DID institute the portal, but handled it about as poorly as, well, you would expect them to. Both are here, and here to stay, with perhaps some minor tweaks along the way. Can't say the same for the NCAA.
(Now a little detour.) Broken record dept.: What the top, say, 64 football powers should have done in the '80s, or certainly no later than the '90s, was take only their FB programs out of the NCAA. Which would have solved the ridiculous amount of conference realignment. Which, as is it, is (1) totally FB driven, an d (2) only adds to the upheaval and uncertainty in college athletics.
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Re: Take deep breath, step back from ledge

Post by dallasdore »

alathIN wrote: Wed Mar 29, 2023 1:54 pm
Vandysmith wrote: Wed Mar 29, 2023 11:46 am They must not care about basketball. Who know what they or thinking.
Really?
You've been watching Trey Thomas and Jordan Wright bust their butts and play their hearts out for the past 3-4 years and your conclusion is they don't care about basketball?
Thomas was going to be buried on the bench behind two all-SEC level guards, a rising sophomore who looks ready for a bigger role next year, and a highly regarded incoming freshman. Want to actually play basketball is probably why he transferred.

What would you have said to Minnesota fans who were badmouthing Robbins when he decided to come to Vanderbilt? I guess Manjon must be another loser who just doesn't care about basketball.
I think he was referring to the NCAA.
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Re: Take deep breath, step back from ledge

Post by Ndorefin »

I can’t imagine any of our transfers going into a better situation by transferring. Our TEAM wouldn’t have been better with any of these players getting the opportunity they believed they deserved. Shelby is an awesome shooter, but I don’t believe Stack wouldn’t have played him if he was willing to work on his deficiencies-with true dedication and desire. He may go to a mid manor and average 20 a game, as long as no supreme defensive effort is required. Dia has super potential, but I don’t believe he is athletic enough for his defensive weakness to overcome his shooting ability. Most athletes take classes during the summer and possibly in 4 summers could have accumulated enough hours to have graduated….including Stute and Thomas (but not likely). Paul Lewis has been the biggest surprise from the frosh. If not for the injuries, he would have been given even more minutes and I anticipate a major role next year. There’s no reason for Lawrence not to return as he will be the focal point of our offense and if he transfers, he is not guaranteed to have the same role elsewhere.
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Re: Take deep breath, step back from ledge

Post by alathIN »

Go Vandy! wrote: Wed Mar 29, 2023 3:37 pm While the NCAA didn't institute NIL, which they KNEW was coming for decades, they didn't do anything to regulate it or take care of s/a's who don't have a $100 mil future. They DID institute the portal, but handled it about as poorly as, well, you would expect them to. Both are here, and here to stay, with perhaps some minor tweaks along the way. Can't say the same for the NCAA.
There were pending lawsuits on transfer rules so the NCAA started the portal because the writing was on the wall. They would have kept the old rules if they could.

I agree the NCAA could have made these changes a lot more smoothly if they were willing to work ahead of events instead of waiting until it was inevitable and everything happens in crash mode. The problem is the NCAA does not have much of its own authority - it's almost impossible for them to impose anything on the member institutions that they don't agree with. Even if they'd had brilliant leadership - which I have never seen any sign of - it would have been tough to get all the members on board with a plan to loosen their grip on power.
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Re: Take deep breath, step back from ledge

Post by Jason94 »

Ndorefin wrote: Wed Mar 29, 2023 6:01 pm I can’t imagine any of our transfers going into a better situation by transferring. Our TEAM wouldn’t have been better with any of these players getting the opportunity they believed they deserved. Shelby is an awesome shooter, but I don’t believe Stack wouldn’t have played him if he was willing to work on his deficiencies-with true dedication and desire. He may go to a mid manor and average 20 a game, as long as no supreme defensive effort is required. Dia has super potential, but I don’t believe he is athletic enough for his defensive weakness to overcome his shooting ability. Most athletes take classes during the summer and possibly in 4 summers could have accumulated enough hours to have graduated….including Stute and Thomas (but not likely). Paul Lewis has been the biggest surprise from the frosh. If not for the injuries, he would have been given even more minutes and I anticipate a major role next year. There’s no reason for Lawrence not to return as he will be the focal point of our offense and if he transfers, he is not guaranteed to have the same role elsewhere.
The only player I can't imagine going to a better situation is Thomas. The others will likely benefit from a step down in the level of competition due to their overall offensive limitations. Thought that is probably true with Thomas, he at least had the full trust of CJS, and it is difficult to see him getting more minutes at any high or mid-major. It is a bit of a testament to his coaching acumen that he got so close to the tournament with Thomas playing as much as he did, though at the same time telling of his roster management issues that Thomas was probably the best option available at the backup guard spot.

The only player who has entered the portal so far who cannot be replaced (production wise) by a Mann/Ansong equivalent transfer is Wright. Getting a player at the Chatman/Robbins/Manjon level would be an upgrade over what we were getting from that player this season. We will need these upgrades as well because despite the heroics that occurred following Robbins' season ending injury, we were a better team with Robbins, and to the extent that we were as good as we were after Robbins was due in large part to the improved play of Wright around that point.

So while I agree that our team wouldn't have been better with the transferring players getting larger roles, this in part is why their transferring is likely to get them in a better situation. Their PT would have continued to be limited as CJS is able to bring in better players, as the trend of the last couple of years has suggested.
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Re: Take deep breath, step back from ledge

Post by FayetteDore »

dallasdore wrote: Wed Mar 29, 2023 3:44 pm
alathIN wrote: Wed Mar 29, 2023 1:54 pm
Vandysmith wrote: Wed Mar 29, 2023 11:46 am They must not care about basketball. Who know what they or thinking.
Really?
You've been watching Trey Thomas and Jordan Wright bust their butts and play their hearts out for the past 3-4 years and your conclusion is they don't care about basketball?
Thomas was going to be buried on the bench behind two all-SEC level guards, a rising sophomore who looks ready for a bigger role next year, and a highly regarded incoming freshman. Want to actually play basketball is probably why he transferred.

What would you have said to Minnesota fans who were badmouthing Robbins when he decided to come to Vanderbilt? I guess Manjon must be another loser who just doesn't care about basketball.
I think he was referring to the NCAA.
That's what I thought when I read it too. Didn't think he was referring to the players at all.
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Re: Take deep breath, step back from ledge

Post by Vandy187187 »

Here is my issue. Stack has said this is a developers program. We want to recruit high school recruits and coach 'em up. We want to grow old as a team like QMB as a VU ambassador. Coach Ralph has honestly stated the limitations with transfers at VU. Our strategy simply will not work with 4 transfer portals out each year. True some have graduated and go on. But we lost Stute, Dia, Shelby, all should have been big contributors next year.

Our "strategy" says that we have to be different right? I don't know that we can be if nobody cares about the degree. Based on the transfer portal, nobody cares anymore.

That doesn't mean that we can't get some great players to come in and contribute next year. What it means is that the whole get them young and raise them up strategy is out the window. We get them young and they leave us young. Been that way since Disu. Imagine if he was on the team still and Scottie. But they aren't. We still had a darn good team but imagine with them on it.
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Re: Take deep breath, step back from ledge

Post by Doreknox »

Vandy187187 wrote: Thu Mar 30, 2023 12:08 am Here is my issue. Stack has said this is a developers program. We want to recruit high school recruits and coach 'em up. We want to grow old as a team like QMB as a VU ambassador. Coach Ralph has honestly stated the limitations with transfers at VU. Our strategy simply will not work with 4 transfer portals out each year. True some have graduated and go on. But we lost Stute, Dia, Shelby, all should have been big contributors next year.

Our "strategy" says that we have to be different right? I don't know that we can be if nobody cares about the degree. Based on the transfer portal, nobody cares anymore.

That doesn't mean that we can't get some great players to come in and contribute next year. What it means is that the whole get them young and raise them up strategy is out the window. We get them young and they leave us young. Been that way since Disu. Imagine if he was on the team still and Scottie. But they aren't. We still had a darn good team but imagine with them on it.
If Stack wants a developers program, then he has to figure out how to put freshman players into games and situations where they will succeed. Other coaches seem to be able to do it. Otherwise, he will continue to lose large portions or all of his recruiting classes.

It took this team 22 games this year to figure out how to play together within Stack's system. Will it take 22 games next year for the team with six new players to gel and play good basketball?

I know many of you feel transfers are par for the course these days, but I still think there is far too much attrition in our basketball program. Either we are missing out on player talent evaluations or on their potential fit within the university. Given the admittedly shallow pool of transfers from which we can recruit, we need four year players.
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Re: Take deep breath, step back from ledge

Post by MrMemorial »

IIRC, the final 2 teams in the NIT right now each have 6 transfers.

That's the world we now reside in since the NCAA used the pandemic to throw out the rule book.

You can like it. You can hate it. But it's the new reality. Pick any boogie-man you want to make the scapegoat for this new reality. Sarah Fuller...Malcolm Turner...Zeppos shouting "ANCHOR DOWN" at Adam Sparks in a parking lot...Piggly Wiggly over by 29th Ave being closed...

All of them have as much to do with the NCAA's greed and corruption as our coaches.
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Re: Take deep breath, step back from ledge

Post by bornadore57 »

I'm not terribly discouraged, at this point. I also realize this is a fluid situation and could be changing as I type this.

I love having the nucleus of Manjon, QMB, Smith, and Lewis to build around. Those guys, to me, have proven they can compete in the SEC. Add Lawrence to that group, which I think will happen, and we're in pretty good shape. If Dort progresses, so much the better. Contributions from freshman are always a "crap shoot," but here's to hoping one or two can provide meaningful minutes from the beginning.

As this season ended, I was sorry to see Stute go. I thought he did some nice things, especially from a team aspect, when he was asked to play some five on defense, something which was not a part of his plans, I'm sure. However, I had lost confidence in his shot - and think that he had, too. I hope a new environment serves him well and he finds a place he can develop the parts of his game that he wants to develop.

I was kind of hoping that Thomas would enter the portal. Great kid and Stack has confidence in him, more than I do. I think we can come out to the better there.

Wright seems to have a plan for his future and has had a plan for awhile. I am grateful it included four years with Vanderbilt basketball. He has made some significant contributions and provided some memorable moments. I'm proud to call him a Vanderbilt man and wish him nothing but the best, no matter where it leads him.

With Shelby and Dia, they had not yet shown much. Perhaps they weren't showing much in practice either. The portal works both ways - good for the players and good for the team, if worked correctly and the team is managed well. I think all teams are figuring out how the portal works best for them and no one's earliest statements on how to handle the portal should be held against them. Again, this is a new world and how it is addressed by teams is fluid.

Yes, I miss the day of four year players. But, I've found it easy to embrace new players like Manjon, Ansong, Robbins, and QMB, as long as they are willing to wear a Vanderbilt jersey and represent the school with pride. Those guys have certainly done that. (And, yes, I embraced Elder, Byars, McCafferty, Lawson, etc., too. So that's not totally new.)

Having Stackhouse recognized as the Ben Jobe recipient for this past year has to help us in the portal. So should the staff's results this past year, along with staff continuity (should that hold).

Loved this year's team and the way they won some amazing games. Not sure there has ever been a more improbable win than the one at Kentucky when Robbins went down in the first four minutes of the game. (Coaching was much easier when Robbins went through that stretch of amazing individual performances. Coaching after he got hurt had to be much more challenging.)

So, here's to Vanderbilt basketball in 2023-24, hoping for Lawrence to return and a pick-up or two out of the portal, and no more unexpected changes. The glass is half full - if not a little more.
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Re: Take deep breath, step back from ledge

Post by OldDude »

Simply reinforcing one point made a couple of times in this thread. CJS may need to work some real magic with the administration to successfully win the portal battle. There may be transfers out there who would love to come to VU, but, if they are juniors or grad transfers, academic admissions may be a real challenge.
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