Early 2018 Football Season Breakdown

[admin]

This is an early look ahead to 2017. We've lost about half the defensive starters and return 3/4s of the offensive starters. Keep in mind that all these projections are just that, projections. Things can change between now and August 2018. Some underclassmen will likely transfer or decide to forego their final seasons.

Offensively we should have a ton of guys back. An experienced, seasoned QB is back along with the best receiver. All five offensive linemen should be back. Webb is gone but there are very talented guys waiting in the wings. I don't have any major concerns offensively except at wide receiver. While the playmaker Kalija Lipscomb is back, there aren't too many battle-tested guys after that. We might need to move Sam Dobbs back to receiver but we do have some horses coming in this next recruiting crop that could hit the ground running at the receiver position.

OFFENSIVE STARTERS LOST - POSSIBLE REPLACEMENT

WR Trent Sherfield - Donaven Tennyson, Alex Stump (Ohio State trans.)
TE Nathan Marcus - Jared Pinkney
RB Ralph Webb - Jamauri Wakefield, Ke'Shawn Vaughn
FB Dallas Rivers - Bailey McElwain
WR CJ Duncan - James Bostic, Chris Pierce, Jackson Winrow

Others key offensive losses

RB Dallas Rivers
WR Caleb Scott
WR Trey Ellis
QB Shawn Stankavage

OFFENSIVE RETURNEES

LT Justin Skule
LG Saige Young
C Bruno Reagan
RG Egidio DellaRipa
RT Devin Cochran
QB Kyle Shurmur
WR Kalija Lipscomb

Defensively, things are better than I thought. The team loses six starters but returns a lot of players with experience and talent. I think the potential is there for this unit to be solid. Tre Herndon and Ryan White are the biggest losses. Herndon, because of his speed and coverage ability and White because of his poise and heady play. I'd like a couple of more physical guys in the middle in 2017, namely OLB and NG. Maybe they could take Dayo (listed at 6-6, 250) and put 20 or 30 pounds of muscle on him. He's been doing well at the end position and with some more strength and, muscle he might give VU more of what they had in Adam Butler in 2016. I think the inside linebacker position needs a big, mobile run stopper like Zach Cunningham, as well. VU gave up way too many rushing yards in 2017. It's a wonder they won five games.

DEFENSIVE STARTERS LOST - POSSIBLE REPLACMENT

DE Jonathan Wynn - Dayo Odeyingbo
DT Nifae Lealao - Drew Birchmeier
ILB Emmanuel Smith - Andrew Rector/Andre Mintze
ILB Oren Burks - Jordan Griffin/Caleb Peart
CB Tre Herndon - Bryce Lewis/Donovan Sheffield
SS Ryan White - Zaire Jones
NK Taurean Ferguson - Bryce Lewis/Donovan Sheffield

Other key losses

DL Jay Woods
S Arnold Tarpley

DEFENSIVE RETURNEES

DE Dare Odeyingbo
OLB Charles Wright
ILB Jordan Griffin
OLB Caleb Peart
FS LaDarius Wiley
CB JoeJuan Williams

SPECIAL TEAMS STARTERS LOST

K Tommy Openshaw
SN Scott Sypniewski

ELIGIBILITY EXHAUSTED
20 Oren Burks - Fairfax Station, Va.
19 C.J. Duncan - Montgomery, Ala.
3 Taurean Ferguson - Jonesboro, Ga.
31 Tre Herndon - Chattanooga, Tenn.
77 Nifae Lealao - Sacramento, Calif.
83 Nathan Marcus - Glen Ellyn, Ill.
97 Reid Nelson - Hueytown, Ala.
41 Baffour Osei - Accra, Ghana
28 Dallas Rivers - Stone Mountain, Ga.
17 Tommy Openshaw - Jacksonville, Fla.
9 Caleb Scott - Suwanee, Ga.
10 Trent Sherfield - Danville, Ill.
4 Emmanuel Smith - Murfreesboro, Tenn.
3 Shawn Stankavage - Durham, N.C.
51 Scott Sypniewski - Ottawa, Ill.
2 Arnold Tarpley III - Pittsburgh, Pa.
7 Ralph Webb - Gainesville, Fla.
14 Ryan White - Louisville, Ky.
74 Jay Woods - Jackson, Ga.
49 Jonathan Wynn - Stone Mountain, Ga.

The 2018 Vanderbilt schedule looks like it gives the Commodores a decent shot at a bowl bid. There's no Alabama, thank God. VU gets a visit from MTSU, Nevada, and TSU early in the season. Those should be three wins. The fourth non-conference opponent is Notre Dame in South Bend. From the West, Vandy gets Arkansas instead of Alabama but the 'Dores travel to Fayetteville. Here's a look at the 2018 schedule and my predicted percent chance of a Vandy win.


VANDERBILT 2018 SCHEDULE

Sept. 1: MTSU 60%

Sept. 8: Nevada 60%

Sept. 15: at Notre Dame 20%

Sept. 22: South Carolina 50%

Sept. 29: Tennessee State 90%

Oct. 6: at Georgia 10%

Oct. 13: Florida 20%

Oct. 20: at Kentucky 40%

Oct. 27: at Arkansas 40%

Nov. 10: at Missouri 30%

Nov. 17: Ole Miss 50%

Nov. 24: Tennessee 50%

[AuricGoldfinger]

This is an excellent summary, Don.

The one other mention I would make is Alex Stump, the WR transfer from Ohio State. While he played sparingly during his time there, he was a four-star recruit coming out of high school and is the kind of big bodied WR Vandy hasn't had since Mason arrived.

[roanoke]

I was going to mention Stump and also Pierce seems to get into some games... Winrow is well-advertised.

I think we will be better than folks think at wr. Lipscomb and Pinkney are stars.

What about the Oregon transfer - is he eligible on D?

Also, is LaDarius Wiley back - he is listed as a senior? I thought he might have a year left - but was not sure. He would be very valuable.

[admin]

Thanks guys. I added Alex Stump. Not sure which receiver position he would play. One thing I wanted to point out. What two teams are in the 2017 SEC Championship game? Georgia and Auburn. Keep in mind that we beat Georgia on the road last year and should have beaten Auburn on the road last year. We were jobbed in that game by the scummy SEC review official. The point is though, a lot can change in a year. Despite the defensive breakdown after Bama, I think we should be improved on D next year. I believe the offense will also be better. We also haven't mentioned the incoming freshmen for 2018. That class is developing into a pretty solid group and one of the best ever. I'm sure one or two of those, at least, will get significant playing time. Mason has a good shot at winning six games again.