Some thoughts, predictions about the season ahead

[BrentVU]

Founder's Walk was last weekend. Classes start tomorrow. The heat is still here; it should be close to 90 when Vandy kicks off on Saturday night. Time for some wild predictions about the season...

1. I am unusually bullish on this year's Commodores and think folks are underestimating them; I'm boldly predicting SEVEN wins and a minor bowl appearance for this year's team. The key games this season are Wake Forest, Kentucky, and Missouri; I see Vandy coming out of that trifecta 2-1 (with UK the most probable loss), meaning they should start 5-1. Squeezing two wins out of the rest of the schedule will be a tall order, but I think they do it. Why? Because the level of Vanderbilt's play is about to rise.

2. I think you are going to see Vanderbilt go to a much more pass-oriented offense this season, totally different from what we've seen from Clark Lea teams. Why? Because that's where the talent is. Suddenly, Vandy is flush with talented, fast receivers, and has a QB who can get it to them (and can scramble a bit himself if need be). The offensive line is sizable, deep, and experienced (when could we say that?) and should be able to pass protect. The running game should be a work in progress; the two big tight ends Lea used last year in short-yardage situations are gone, as is the big bruiser Ray Davis. I see Vandy relying on its passing game until its running game comes along, instead of vice versa; hopefully one from that roomful of RBs emerges as a reliable third-down back, and another emerges as a lightning-in-a-bottle game-breaker. For me, the biggest question mark is A.J. Swann's durability; no one knows yet what he's capable of if he can stay upright for a whole season.

On defense, I've watched with glee as Vandy has improved its depth, length, and speed in its front seven. The defense has a lot to prove after last season, but it should be much better at stopping the run. You know that good things are going to come from C.J. Taylor, Jaylen Mahoney, and De'Rickey Wright in the backfield. The only concern is at the two corners, where Lea still hasn't quite surfaced the players to match up with receivers like Tennessee's and Georgia's; and that is admittedly a crucial weakness. But the pass rush should be vastly improved, and you can expect a lot of cagey blitz packages from Nick Howell.

Likewise, this should be the best kicking game we've seen yet for a Lea team. Hayball is a tremendous punter, and I keep hearing good things about the two guys battling for Joe Bulovas' placekicking spot. We should be all right there. Hoping for an improvement in punt coverage, a problem spot last season.

With Vandy's talent level up, I think there will be several games that go down to the last possession; and we should get a much clearer read on what kind of a game-day coach Clark Lea is. Last year Vandy went 2-1 in games decided by 7 points or less.

Bottom line, I like everything I see from this coaching staff (with the possible exception of how the offensive talent was utilized last season). I think this is the season we start to see Clark Lea's investment in "culture" begin to pay some dividends. Mark my words: Vanderbilt is CLOSING THE GAP. If you're a season ticket holder, watch out! Those last two home games were going to sell out anyway, and if Vandy starts out 5-1, there could be a HEAVY demand for those tickets, with the stadium at a reduced capacity.

Where would a 7-5 Vanderbilt team wind up in the postseason? Probably either the Gasparilla Bowl in Tampa (I'm there!), or the TicketSmarter Birmingham Bowl (ugh).

3. Georgia will win the SEC (beating West champion LSU in the SECCG), but its luck will run out in the playoffs. My four playoff teams are: Georgia, Michigan, Penn State, and... Texas (probably going to be kicking myself for that prediction).

I hate this prediction, but: Joe Milton is going to have a great season and probably be in Heisman consideration. (Maybe saying this will jinx him.) But the Heisman is ultimately going to go to...

4. Quinn Ewers of Texas.

[VUaskew]

Dang, now I am FIRED UP!

[dallasdore]

Brent, I am pretty bullish on this year as well. However, two things: 1. Our floor is much higher than it has been since the Poach years. Our worst case scenario used to be one or two wins every year. I think this year the floor (worst we could do if all the stars aligned against us) is at least 3 but probably 4 wins. 2. We are too far ahead of schedule as far as developing the program. Lea took over a complete dumpster fire, was very close to going winless in his first year, jumped all the way up to five wins last year, just hard to maintain that sort of trajectory.

I picked five wins in the prediction contest. However, I won't be stunned if we won only 4, or 7, or (gulp) even 8.

I don't see UGa repeating as East champ. Tons of talent, but too many questions to not slip up at least once and possibly twice. Believe it or not, I see Carolina and not UThug as the main challenger. I think Melton will be a human highlight reel for both sides of the ball. I wouldn't be stunned if he isn't even starting by year end. That superhuman arm of his doesn't translate into accuracy and good decision-making. We shall see.

I sure hope that two big ten teams don't make the playoff. That will likely be a travesty.

I think this is LSU's year. They are L-O-A-D-E-D with talent. They have won natty's in both women's hoops and baseball this calendar year with big name coaches in their second year at LSU that they scooped away from another school. Well, their coach is in his second year from ND. Hmmm......

[Go Vandy!]

(1) ...I've watched with glee...
(2) Where would a 7-5 Vanderbilt team wind up in the postseason? Probably either the Gasparilla Bowl in Tampa (I'm there!), or the TicketSmarter Birmingham Bowl (ugh).

1. Anytime Brent is gleeful, it's a good sign.
2. Music City Bowl?

[MikenNashville]

The optimist in me says Vanderbilt starts the season with a 6-0 record, the pessimist in me says the record will be 3-3 to start.

[commadore]

The optimist in me says Vanderbilt starts the season with a 6-0 record, the pessimist in me says the record will be 3-3 to start.

I am exactly the same here.

[AuricGoldfinger]

On the one hand, I agree wholeheartedly that the passing game is going to be very strong (assuming we do embrace the strengths there), and will be the centerpiece of the offense. This is the deepest WR group Vandy has had in a long time, and if Swann is the QB we believe him to be, this could be a very exciting pass-first offense.

On the other hand, I still worry a great deal about the secondary on defense. The pass defense was so, so bad last year, and the stench of those 50-point games doesn't go away quickly. While the talent is upgrading in the defensive backfield and is very promising, it's still generally young. I'm also still worried about the running game, even though as Brent points out it is likely to be de-emphasized in the early stages of the season.