VANDERBILT-SOUTH CAROLINA -- WILL HOPE FLOAT?

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zemek
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VANDERBILT-SOUTH CAROLINA -- WILL HOPE FLOAT?

Post by zemek »

Information and analysis of South Carolina players come from college basketball freelance writer and researcher Nathan Giese

The Vanderbilt Commodores got the memo on multiple levels Tuesday night against Alabama.

Their 43-point first half more than doubled their dreary 20-point first half the previous Saturday against Florida. Vanderbilt got to the foul line, hit threes with relative consistency, and played an offensive game it could look at with pleasure instead of disgust. Alabama hit 50 percent of its shots and did not hemorrhage turnovers, but Vanderbilt's offense was efficient enough to carry the day. VU ran an excellent halfcourt set and furnished a gorgeous possession in the final half-minute to generate a layup which represented the decisive margin in a 76-75 triumph.

The result was desperately needed. The close calls of previous weeks turned into a breakthrough. The season remains an uphill path for this team, but after finally solving a crunch-time puzzle against a quality opponent, there is enough time left in the season for VU to get on a roll, even in a more rugged and contentious SEC than we've seen in previous years. As the Commodores steer their ship through the choppy waters of what could be the deepest conference in college basketball, they are wondering if newfound hope can float... or if it will sink.

Taking care of business against South Carolina -- the team which made its first Final Four last year -- is a necessity in the attempt to solidify this campaign.

It's noticeable that Vanderbilt hit so many targets against Alabama. The three-point shooting will not always be 40 percent on a relatively high volume of shots, but that's obviously where the Dores would love to keep their perimeter shooting all season. The more instructive feature of their performance is that a large number of threes taken (and made) did not translate into a nonexistent free throw game. To shoot 25 threes and get MORE free throw attempts (26) displays balance and a commitment to situational basketball: attack when the defense extends, pop the jumper when the defense sags or otherwise relents. VU can do a lot with that kind of basketball IQ over the next two months.

One other conspicuous feature of Vanderbilt's performance against the Tide: VU allowed just FOUR offensive rebounds to Alabama, an exceptional display of attentiveness and positioning on the glass. Limiting Alabama's possessions minimized the impact of the Tide's 50-percent shooting clip. Vanderbilt displayed and enhanced its own strengths while largely containing Alabama's strengths...

... and won by a single point.

That's how tough the 2018 SEC is on the hardwood. Yet, if Vanderbilt can continue to be vigilant and smart in all the ways it was against Alabama, this team certainly has experienced, talented performers who can make something of this season, players who will ensure that hope floats, instead of sinks, in the coming weeks.

Here is a look at South Carolina's lineup, as the Gamecocks try to bounce back from a miserable performance at home against Missouri. South Carolina didn't even breathe on Mizzou despite the fact that the Tigers are without superstar Michael Porter, Jr.

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Chris Silva: One of the few remaining pieces from South Carolina’s Final Four team, Silva has established himself as the on-court leader. He leads the team in scoring (13.7 points per game) and rebounding (8.1) and has 20 blocks on the season. Most of his shot attempts have been on post-ups, where he’s scoring well under one point per possession. He is sill a threat there, just not very efficient and not where Frank Martin needs him to produce. His best opportunities have been on cuts, in transition on on offensive rebounds.

Teams really don’t go at Silva, with good reason. Opponents have taken only 47 shots against Silva and converted 30 points. That’s a 29-percent success rate, but also a very low overall volume of shot attempts for early January, nearly two full months into the season. Challenge him if you wish, but his length and quickness are trouble for offenses.

Frank Booker: The only other player to average double-digit scoring numbers for South Carolina, Booker can get it done in a variety of ways. He has taken 86 3-pointers (by far the most on the team) and hitting 44 percent of those attempts. He doesn’t get to the foul line much since he spends most of his time along the perimeter. He has more turnovers than assists (24 to 23) and doesn’t register much in the rebounding department.

Almost all of Booker’s defense has come against jump shots (unsurprisingly). Opponents are shooting 35 percent against him. However, that adjusted field goal percentage skyrockets to 47 percent, so teams are getting it done against him from three-point range. That reality has to change for the Gamecocks, since they are formidable in defending the paint. Their perimeter defense has to improve in order to give them a more complete profile and fewer points of substantial vulnerability.

Maik Kotsar: He has taken about the same amount of total shots as Booker, but since his shots all come from inside, Kotsar’s numbers aren’t exceptional. He’s converting on 46 percent of his attempts, almost all of which have come in the paint, but he compensates on defense, where he does have 18 steals and 12 blocks.

Kotsar and Silva make an intimidating duo inside with their pure size and wing span. Opponents have registered just 43 points against Kotsar this year on 58 shot attempts. That's a conspicuous and impressive pair of defensive numbers for the veterans of last season's historic Final Four run. South Carolina has many weaknesses, but low-post defense and rim protection are not two of them. Vanderbilt faces clear points of differentiation when attacking South Carolina's defense. It should obviously try to seize upon South Carolina's foremost deficiencies. Yet, it cannot completely avoid the Gamecocks' strengths. Jeff Roberson will want to pick his spots in this game and display the various skills in his repertoire, but that can't mean ceding touches or possessions to the backcourt, thereby running the risk of becoming a bystander.

Justin Minaya: Mainly a spot shooter, Minaya has spotty percentages with splits of 39/37/66 (field goal percentage, three-point percentage, free throw percentage) on the season. He doesn’t have stellar metrics in any department; he does enough to make himself a threat when the opportunity is there.

At the other end of the floor, however, it is not a pretty picture. Opponents are having a field day against Minaya this season, shooting 48 percent against his defense on jump shots and 45 percent around the basket. There are openings to attack, and one can trust that Bryce Drew will try to expose Minaya in his offensive game plan. Frank Martin has to get more on defense from him, so that South Carolina won't continue to carry around the equivalent of a "KICK ME!" sign on the court when it plays defense.

Hassani Gravett: This is another player who is all over the place offensively, underlining the Gamecocks' woes this season. Gravett has taken 38 threes on the season and hit just 10. He is converting just over 37 percent of his total shot attempts. He does have a 2-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio.

Defense is where Gravett stands out. He’s exceptional at defending jump shots (allowing 23 percent) and making shots around the basket difficult for opponents (35 percent).
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