VANDERBILT -- BAPTISM BY FIRE TO HOUSTON BAPTIST

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VANDERBILT -- BAPTISM BY FIRE TO HOUSTON BAPTIST

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Analysis and information on Houston Baptist players is provided by college basketball freelance writer and researcher Nathan Giese

The Vanderbilt Commodores and head coach Bryce Drew have taken on a lot of challenging teams this season, but no one expected Arizona State to be the highest-ranked opponent of a rugged non-conference schedule. That plot twist gave VU a chance to significantly transform its resume this past Sunday in the Desert Southwest, and after a rip-roaring opening sequence preceding the first media timeout, there was an ever-so-brief period of time when it seemed that VU might have gained a moment of needed clarity and renewal.

It didn't last.

The frustrating part of Vanderbilt's loss was not the big blown lead -- it was established at the start of the game, and everyone knew the Sun Devils would make a run. The 76-64 defeat was particularly hard to stomach because VU clearly defended well enough to win. Arizona State's basic offensive stats -- 44 percent field goal shooting, 5 of 23 on three-pointers, 17 turnovers, 76 points -- would have gladly been accepted by Drew and his staff before tipoff. Those numbers would have given several Arizona State opponents a win in games against the Sun Devils earlier this season. Arizona State had been winning firefights played in the 80s and 90s, not slugfests in the mid-70s. Vanderbilt's defense did not let any Sun Devil score more than Tra Holder's 25 -- no single Sun Devil truly busted loose -- and no other ASU player topped 15 points... despite forward Romello White grabbing eight offensive rebounds to give Arizona State extra possessions. Vanderbilt worked its tail off when guarding the Sun Devils. This performance at that
end of the floor was more than sufficient to win.

The offense, save for Saben Lee, simply didn't make the trip to Tempe. Lee hit nine shots and did more than his fair share, but his VU teammates collectively made only 14 field goals in 54 attempts. Vanderbilt showed grit and determination on Sunday, but the "here today, gone tomorrow" nature of the Dores' shooting -- something which existed last year and has existed for several years within the walls of the program -- displayed its deficient side at the worst possible time.

Now the Dores must deal with a very specific challenge -- they ought to look to Bloomington, Indiana, for a warning.

No, VU didn't win on Sunday, but it did play a high-profile game against a ranked opponent. Now the Dores have to make a relatively quick turnaround to play Houston Baptist. Indiana won its showcase game on the weekend against Notre Dame, but the Hoosiers then had to play a downmarket opponent just two days later at home. They were not ready. Yes, Vanderbilt does not have to deal with the euphoria of a big win (one wishes it would have had that "problem" heading into this next game), but VU does have to handle a
quick turnaround for a game in which its opponent is likely to have a lot of enthusiasm. Vanderbilt can't get caught flat-footed.

This is not a season-defining game or anything akin to it, but it's a game VU has to avoid losing.

Let's take a look at Houston Baptist's foremost players, noting that the first one on the list might not be able to start against Vanderbilt:

Josh Ibarra: Though he’s missed the last two games, it's important to take note of him in case Ibarra should play against Vanderbilt. Ibarra, a 6-foot-11 senior, has been the catalyst for the Huskies this season, averaging 16 points and 10 rebounds per game. Most of his offense unsurprisingly comes from post-ups. Against major conference opponents this year, Ibarra’s numbers level off significantly. He had 31 points and 13 boards against Detroit Mercy and eight and five against Providence. He had 26 points against
Saint Peter's and 13 against Virginia Tech. He missed the Michigan State shellacking.

Ibarra has gotten into foul trouble a couples times this year, but has yet to foul out, which might explain why his defensive numbers are in the sixth percentile (i.e. not good at all). He has allowed an 81-percent success rate on post-ups (18 points on 11 possessions).

David Caraher: The freshman had a breakout performance with 19 points and seven boards to open the season against Providence, though he’s had some trouble with consistency. Stil, Caraher has shown a capability to put up big numbers, including a 30-point outing against UTSA. He gets to the free throw line quite a bit and has taken the most shots on the team, so the Huskies are trying to get him his shot whenever they can. His best scoring opportunities have been on spot-up shots and in transition.

He’s also been excellent on defense, allowing just 42 points on 68 possessions as the primary defender. Most of those shots have come from jumpers, though that doesn’t diminish the fact that his man isn’t scoring all that much. Taking into account Houston Baptist’s schedule is also important.

Ian DuBose: He averages over 11 points per game and has taken the most free throws on the team (by one). He’s a subpar shooter, hovering below the 40 percent mark overall and 31 percent from three-point land. He’s best in spot-up shot situations, though most shooters are. Most of DuBose’s opportunities have come in transition, he just hasn’t converted many of those chances (41 points in 48 possessions).

His shooting percentage also reflects what opponents are shooting against him, which is about 38 percent. Almost all of those shots have been spot -up jumpers and opponents are knocking down 46 percent of those chances.

Braxton Bonds: He is not a complete offensive threat, sitting at 38 percent shooting. He averages around nine points and five rebounds per game, so there isn’t much to say about that. What is notable is that Bond has 27 steals and 62 assists on the season. Those are by far the best numbers on the team. He’s just under a 3-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio, which is a solid number for any point guard. He’s also very good at defending the pick-and-roll, but since this is college, those opportunities don’t come too often. When they do, he’s a lethal defender.

Will Gates Jr.: The most efficient scorer on the team, Gates has connected on exactly 50 percent of his shot attempts. He’ll take three-pointers but not terribly often (19 attempts through 12 games) and has five makes on the year.

Houston Baptist isn’t a terrific defensive team, but, again, its schedule has a solid mix of high major teams that can skew those numbers a bit. That plays into the idea that Gates, who’s allowing a 47 percent success rate to opponents, is formidable in his own right and better than the numbers might indicate as well.


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