VANDERBILT-ARIZONA STATE -- THE DORE OPENS TO THE DEVILS' DEN

Insider forum for fans of Vanderbilt football, men's and women's basketball, and baseball. Signup for access here https://www.14powers.com/signup-for-membership/ If you are a premium member and are having trouble accessing this board please email donyates@vandymania.com Include your username in the email.
User avatar
admin
Site Admin
Posts: 8680
Joined: Wed Nov 02, 2016 3:44 pm
Location: VandyVille
Has thanked: 59 times
Been thanked: 23 times
Contact:

VANDERBILT-ARIZONA STATE -- THE DORE OPENS TO THE DEVILS' DEN

Post by admin »

By Matt Zemek

Information and analysis on Arizona State players provided by college basketball freelance writer and researcher Nathan Giese.

SEC teams and Pac-12 teams don't play in December... in college football. The SEC and Pac-12 don't have any bowl game contracts, a persistent and conspicuous void in the province of pigskin. How helpful, even soothing, it is to know that such conference segregation doesn't exist in college basketball at this time of year. One month after hosting USC, Vanderbilt pays a visit to the Valley of the Sun, which -- for the purposes of Arizona State athletics -- can also be referred to as the Valley of the Sun Devils. The greater Phoenix metropolitan area, specifically the college-town suburb of Tempe, hosts a game which is nothing like the preseason expectations that greeted it.

When this Sunday showcase was sized up at the start of November, Vanderbilt figured to have the upper hand. At the very least, the Commodores were the more known entity with multiple returning starters from an NCAA Tournament team. Arizona State did figure to be better, but the USC team which defeated Vanderbilt in Memorial Gym in November was supposed to be the lead dog in the Pac-12. Arizona State was supposed to be in the mix for an NCAA bid, but as a bubble team or -- at best -- a team which might fall into an 8-9 game, as was the case with Vanderbilt last season.

After one very surprising month of college basketball, Arizona State could play an 8-9 winner in the Round of 32... as a No. 1 seed.

Yes, you read that right: Arizona State has a resume worthy of a No. 1 seed. The Sun Devils zipped up Xavier, cut down Kansas State, and conquered Kansas in Phog Allen Fieldhouse. Bobby Hurley's team has answered every challenge against an ambitious national schedule stuffed with power conference opponents. It's quite the plot twist that as Sunday's game arrives, Vanderbilt will not fatten up Arizona State's resume -- the Commodores don't provide enough value at this point. ASU must hope that VU becomes a higher-value poker chip in March after rebounding against the SEC.

The non-conference portion of the slate has been a disaster for Vanderbilt, albeit a disaster the Dores can recover from.

Bryce Drew pulled no punches with this schedule, a low-cupcake diet intended to test Vanderbilt at its weakest points. The problem is that the flood of early tests has not sharpened this team's resources and responses.

The fact that Vanderbilt is shooting under 31 percent from three-point range is a concern, but not as much of a crisis as one might first think. VU was always going to need a Plan B on offense to be good this season. The Golden State Warriors and Houston Rockets -- also the Cleveland Cavaliers -- can rely on threes to carry them, but Vanderbilt's run to the NCAAs last season was more precarious and far less reliable, barely above .500. Vanderbilt needed to get much more of its production this season going to the basket. The Commodores needed to be a knockdown team at the foul line when able to earn freebies.

This team simply isn't checking those other boxes.

If the three-point shooting was going to lag behind its target this season -- and it has -- a foul-shooting percentage under 74 won't cut it. Neither will the fact that Matthew Fisher-Davis is averaging only 12 points or that only three players on the roster are averaging at least eight points per contest. One can be fair and say that it's overly ambitious to expect ALL three of those realities (foul shots, Fisher-Davis, roster scoring) to change. However, it is just as fair to expect that TWO of those three realities should change soon.

This doesn't even account for the persistent inability to create turnovers from opposing offenses, a stubborn problem which remained in evidence in VU's most recent game against Middle Tennessee. VU has forced fewer than 10 turnovers in a majority of its games this season.

This sets up Sunday's contest, as does the fact that players have tended to academics over the past week and a half in what is always the lightest period of basketball activity each season. Focusing on classwork before Christmas and having some time away from the practice court are just what VU needed in its present situation... and its decidedly ragged state. Getting a week and a half off can reset the mind of each player and create the idea that Sunday marks the start of a new season. If Vanderbilt can be its best self against Arizona State -- win or lose -- the outlook for the SEC season (in which there will be ample chances to gain quality wins and reverse the course of the season) will brighten considerably.

A win would be fantastic in Tempe on Sunday, but Vanderbilt must first be able to leave a court knowing it played well. If Arizona State continues to play like a No. 1 seed, VU will not triumph. Being able to play the way Bryce Drew expects is the hurdle Vanderbilt must clear before it can entertain any grander and higher aspirations.

Here is a look at the Sun Devils and their unexpectedly formidable roster of primary players:

Tra Holder: The engine behind the Arizona State hype train, Holder’s one of the top offensive weapons in college basketball right now. Averaging 21.2 points per game while shooting 46 percent -- both overall and from 3-point range -- Holder is a jack of all trades. You don’t put up 40 points against Xavier, a traditionally stout defensive team, and 29 against Kansas in The Phog by accident. Whenever the ball’s in his hands, the Sun Devils feel good about what the result will be.

Defense is a different story. The Sun Devils aren’t a terrific defensive team and Holder is part of that reality. Opponents have found great success scoring against Holder on spot-up shots, so he’s not closing out very hard on shooters.

Shannon Evans: The big name that came with Bobby Hurley from Buffalo, Evans isn’t too far behind Holder in terms of offensive prowess. He’s second on the team with a 19 points per game average and identical shooting splits of 44 percent overall and from distance (similar to Holder holding the same shooting percentages from the field and three-point range). Just under half of his shots have been from 3-point range and, like Holder, he averages over five assists per contest. The majority of his shots have been in pick-and-roll and spot-up situations.

Romello White: He missed one game and played just 13 minutes against Kansas, but the 6-foot-8 White has three double-doubles and a 68-percent success rate on his shot attempts, most of which come off cuts and post-ups.

White excels on the defensive end with opponents hitting just 26 percent of their shots against him as the primary defender. A dedicated big man, almost all of White’s opponents' shots come in the paint.

Kodi Justice: The fourth starter averaging double-digit scoring numbers (over 14 per game), Justice is good for about 10 shots per game, most of which come from three-point range. Fifty-seven of his 84 shots have been from deep, connecting on 42 percent of those attempts. Those shots are also very spot-up heavy. Justice's scoring potency as a fourth option illustrates how loaded the Sun Devils are... and how far away Vanderbilt is from that same lofty standard at the offensive end of the floor.

Justice is also one of the better defenders on the team, allowing just 27 percent shooting as the primary defender. Unlike Holder, Justice does close out on his man in spot-up opportunities, which accounts for some of the good defensive numbers.

Vitaliy Shibel: A token big-man starter, Shibel is seventh on the team in minutes and scoring. He’s had six games with at least four fouls and two disqualifications so far this season. Though a big man, he’s had only four shots that weren’t 3-pointers. Shibel is an enigma.

With his foul tendencies and allowing 50 percent shooting, there’s a reason Shibel doesn’t get a ton of playing time. He’s a redshirt freshman, so he’s prone to those kinds of gaffes.
*
It would be great to think that Vanderbilt can play a strong defensive game and break its low-forced-turnover count on Sunday, but the Sun Devils are in such a groove that the Commodores can't expect everything to fall into place in their season of struggle. Evolution and improvement are the reasonable requests for VU in this game, whether or not they lead to victory. The most direct and attainable path to improvement is for the offense -- averaging 69 points per game -- to reach the mid-80s against a vulnerable Arizona State defense. If the Sun Devils hang 100 on the Dores, so be it... but the Vanderbilt offense can no longer linger in mediocrity. That has to be a first point of expectation for the Drew Crew in the Valley of the Sun.
Baptiste.JPG
Baptiste.JPG (441.6 KiB) Viewed 2183 times


-----------------------------------------------------------
Don Yates - Publisher, http://www.vandymania.com Fl@g