VANDERBILT IN A GREG SCHIANO WORLD

Insider forum for fans of Vanderbilt football, men's and women's basketball, and baseball. Signup for access here https://www.14powers.com/signup-for-membership/ If you are a premium member and are having trouble accessing this board please email donyates@vandymania.com Include your username in the email.
User avatar
admin
Site Admin
Posts: 8680
Joined: Wed Nov 02, 2016 3:44 pm
Location: VandyVille
Has thanked: 59 times
Been thanked: 23 times
Contact:

VANDERBILT IN A GREG SCHIANO WORLD

Post by admin »

By Matt Zemek

The Vanderbilt Commodores thrashed the Tennessee Volunteers on Saturday.

John Currie thrashed the Tennessee Volunteers on Sunday.

Tennessee's football team lost a game. The next day, Tennessee's athletic department lost a lot of respect and trust -- mostly within the Volunteer family.

Vanderbilt did not cause Sunday's insanity in Knoxville to unfold, but the Commodores' proximity to the Volunteer Navy means that in a battle of same-state Southern sailors trying to find the high seas of pigskin prosperity, Tennessee's implosion cannot be ignored in Nashville.

Vanderbilt now knows that Tennessee didn't land Mike Gundy (the odds were always low; now it's official), but even if the Vols strike it rich in spite of themselves, VU has to know that after the Greg Schiano fiasco, there simply isn't much ambiguity attached to the 2018 SEC season, when Vanderbilt will play its next game.

It is good that a number of 5-6 teams won games on Saturday, filling up the bowl slots and locking all 5-7 teams out of the picture. Vanderbilt needed a bowl game this season... at 6-6 or better. It did not need a pigskin postseason pity party. The finality of not having a late-December game to go to might make players more cognizant of the reality that postseason trips aren't guaranteed, and that one good year doesn't automatically carry into the next one. Vanderbilt went 4-0 out of conference this season, meaning it needed merely a 2-6 SEC record to go bowling. It went 1-7. That should not be rewarded with a bowl. Derek Mason and Andy Ludwig need to be a lot better next year. Now that process can start, without a 13th game getting in the way.

When that 2018 season begins, it seems impossible to think -- after the Greg Schiano soap opera, or perhaps the Schia-NOPE opera -- that Mason is in a safe position.

He will be coaching for his job... and should have to earn a 2019 season.

Let's say the more logical turn of events emerges in Knoxville (I know, I know, logic and Knoxville don't go together much these days, but be patient with me...) and Tee Martin becomes the next coach of the Vols. That is the more logical outcome in that high-profile coaches are more likely to be scared off, due to the Schiano plot twist. Tennessee is more likely to get an in-the-family hire who will make fans happy. Non-superstar outsiders will be harder sells for a wounded fan base.

If Tee Martin comes aboard, Vanderbilt will have a genuine chance -- not necessarily a good one, but a real one -- of surpassing the Vols in the coming years. Dan Mullen has (unfortunately, from a VU-specific viewpoint) landed at Florida, but with Georgia losing a ton of starters from a veteran team recruited by Mark Richt, it is possible that Kirby Smart will struggle in 2018 and beyond. He has hit a home run this year, but next year will freshly challenge him. Tennessee failing in its coaching search (Martin would represent a very weak hire in light of the quality of the marketplace) would make it realistic for Vanderbilt to think it could finish in the upper half (more precisely, the top three) of the SEC East on a regular basis.

Realistic is not the same as easy, but it would be attainable...

... with the right coach.

This brings us to 2018.

There has been too much coaching churn and turnover in the SEC -- nearly half of all 14 spots will change by the time this coaching carousel stops spinning -- for programs to settle for mediocrity. Florida definitely made an upgrade, and Arkansas has a chance to make an upgrade. (It will be harder for Mississippi State to do the same, but the Bulldogs get a crack at it.) If Vanderbilt really is serious about winning at football -- and the past 12 to 18 months suggest that is beginning to become the case -- Derek Mason must be asked to clear a reasonably high bar next year. No, not nine wins, but certainly -- I would think -- seven. Mason needs to finish a 12-game schedule north of .500 for him to deserve the long-term keys to the kingdom.

What makes 2018 important beyond the Schiano factor and the dysfunction at Tennessee is that Kyle Shurmur should be back at quarterback for one more ride. I don't want to speak with absolute certainty on the matter, but I would say it's much more likely than not.

Much as Butch Jones had one last rodeo with Josh Dobbs in 2016 -- the year when Tennessee was expected to put the pieces together -- Mason and Ludwig would need to maximize Shurmur's gifts and make a noticeable step up in performance. A 5-7 season followed by 6-6 would not be something to celebrate. 7-5 at a minimum -- ideally 8-4 -- should be seen as a target, especially since this year's 5-7 was accompanied by only one SEC win. A 7-5 record means that even if Vanderbilt went 4-0 out of conference, it would have three SEC wins on its resume. That's not great, but it could show that even with Mullen at Florida, in the SEC East, Vanderbilt could survive. A 6-6 season with a 2-6 SEC record would not cut it. The SEC East is too vulnerable for 2-6 to be an acceptable record in eight conference games. These are the thresholds Mason must transcend. The 7-5, 3-5 combination is the target he must reach.

Otherwise, Vanderbilt -- if aspirations mean anything -- has to find a new Commodore to captain the ship in 2019.

Many in the national college football community will tell Vanderbilt fans that this is not a good job, that it's impossible to win at VU, that the academics and the lack of facilities make it too tough to get the job done. James Franklin offers evidence against that, but even then, Franklin very rarely beat SEC teams with equal or better conference records. When VU went 5-3 in the SEC in 2012, two Vanderbilt opponents -- Kentucky and Auburn -- went 0-8 in the SEC. A third, Tennessee, went 1-7, a fourth, Missouri, went 2-6. Critics will have arguments against Vanderbilt's place in the SEC hierarchy, and they're not to be dismissed, but Franklin shows that an energetic, creative coach can succeed and raise the floor of expectations (if not the ceiling). Most jobs become better when good coaches are selected -- funny how that works.

Vanderbilt should hope that Mason, Ludwig and (one assumes) Shurmur put it all together in 2018. That is the best outcome for the program. Yet, if it doesn't happen, the decision to turn the page should not be a hard one for the same reasons it shouldn't have been hard for Tennessee to ditch Butch Jones when Josh Dobbs' final season fell well short of expectations. (As said last week, Jones wasn't fired a year ago only because the Vols had an open chancellor position with an AD who was about to retire. VU won't have those limitations next year.)

Tennessee is losing time and losing credibility as we speak. If Mason thrives in 2018, chances are he will have beaten the Vols yet another year, fortifying VU and improving the Dores' standing in the SEC East. If Mason can't reach standards, the program has a chance to hire an exciting, innovative coach -- which Mississippi State seems to have done with Penn State offensive coordinator Joe Moorhead.

The stakes are high for Derek Mason next year -- not merely in terms of coaching for his job, but in terms of earning the right to be the man who leads Vanderbilt through a new era marked by a freshly aspirational attitude and a greater commitment to college football. Mason is about to embark on two processes -- career preservation first, but more than that, becoming a pivotal figure in Vanderbilt football history. The risk is great if he loses, but the reward is great if he wins.

Mason won't merely dive into a fight for survival, but to create a legacy. This is what 2018 looks like as 2017 comes to a close and the echoes of Greg Schiano Bloody Sunday reverberate through the state of Tennessee.


-----------------------------------------------------------
Don Yates - Publisher, http://www.vandymania.com Fl@g
User avatar
charlestonalum
Fleet Admiral
Posts: 13165
Joined: Sat Nov 19, 2016 5:37 am
Location: Charleston, SC
Has thanked: 101 times
Been thanked: 81 times
Contact:

Re: VANDERBILT IN A GREG SCHIANO WORLD

Post by charlestonalum »

majority of fans (see poll) and the administration would be pleased with 6-6 and that is realistic for VU without looking as foolish as UT and all the others chasing some unobtainable championship. Mason is safe with 6-6.
Locked Previous topicNext topic